| Title: |
Direct Bayesian model reduction of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on large scale dynamics. |
| Authors: |
Polzin, Robert; Müller, Annette; Rust, Henning; Névir, Peter; Koltai, Péter |
| Source: |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions; 8/11/2021, p1-28, 28p |
| Subject Terms: |
VERTICAL motion; ATMOSPHERIC models; ATMOSPHERIC circulation; TIME series analysis; VERTICAL drafts (Meteorology) |
| Abstract: |
We pursue a simplified stochastic representation of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on large scale dynamics in the atmosphere. For identifying a Bayesian model describing the relation of different scales we use a probabilistic approach (Gerber and Horenko, 2017) called Direct Bayesian Model Reduction (DBMR). The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is applied as large scale flow variable combined with a subgrid smaller scale time series for the vertical velocity. We found a probabilistic relation of CAPE and vertical up- and downdraft for day and night. The categorization is based on the conservation of total probability. This strategy is part of a development process for parametrizations in models of atmospheric dynamics representing the effective influence of unresolved vertical motion on the large scale flows. The direct probabilistic approach provides a basis for further research of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on other possible large scale drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: |
Complementary Index |