| Title: |
Attribution of the 2022 Asian Spatially Compound Heatwave‐Flooding Event to Atmospheric Circulation, La Niña and Anthropogenic Warming. |
| Authors: |
Wang, Jianjun; Gu, Xihui; Gu, Tianshun; Li, Liangwei; Jiang, Zaiming; Xiao, Wen; Wang, Lunche |
| Source: |
Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres; 2/28/2026, Vol. 131 Issue 4, p1-13, 13p |
| Subject Terms: |
ATMOSPHERIC circulation; LA Nina; EFFECT of human beings on climate change; CLIMATE extremes; NATURAL disaster warning systems; CLIMATE change; FLOODS; HEAT waves (Meteorology) |
| Geographic Terms: |
ASIA; SOUTH Asia; YANGTZE River (China) |
| Abstract: |
An unprecedented spatially compound heatwave‐flooding event (SCHFE) affected the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and Northwestern South Asia (NWSA) during summer 2022, causing severe socioeconomic impacts. However, attributing such compound extremes remains challenging due to the lack of integrated frameworks that capture both physical causality and probabilistic assessment. Here, we introduce a storyline‐probability combined attribution framework to quantify individual contributions of atmospheric circulation, La Niña, and anthropogenic warming to this unprecedented 2022 SCHFE. Reanalysis and simulations show that La Niña generated large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to the SCHFE, amplifying the event's severity even when circulation anomalies were weaker than 2022. The SCHFE‐associated atmospheric circulation dynamics accounted for 49.21% (38.64%–59.41%) of the SCHFE's intensity and increased its likelihood by a factor of 4.5 compared with unrelated circulation. Anthropogenic warming contributed 42.31% (34.32%–49.85%) of the intensity throughout the thermodynamic effects, comparable to the circulation‐induced dynamic contribution, while also enhancing the occurrence probability of both La Niña and SCHFE. Projections further indicate that La Niña events will substantially elevate the probability of SCHFEs under continued warming. These findings underscore the need to incorporate atmospheric circulation, La Niña, and anthropogenic warming into early warning systems for such compound extremes. Plain Language Summary: During summer 2022, Asia experienced a severe combination of extreme heat and flooding, with a heatwave in the Yangtze River Basin occurring alongside flooding in northwestern South Asia. To unravel the causes of this spatially compound heatwave‐flooding event (SCHFE), this study applied a new method that combines physical explanations with probability‐based risk assessment. We found that La Niña, a natural climate phenomenon, played a key role in influencing weather systems that intensified the disaster, even without an exceptionally strong weather pattern. These weather patterns under La Niña were responsible for about half of the event's intensity and made such events more than four times more likely. Human‐induced climate warming, which contributed substantially (around 42%), intensified heat and indirectly favored both La Niña and SCHFE development. In the future, as the climate continues to warm, La Niña events are expected to further increase the risk of similar compound disasters. These results highlight the importance of including climate patterns such as atmospheric circulation, La Niña, and anthropogenic warming in disaster early warning systems and planning for climate adaptation. Key Points: La Niña established large‐scale background conditions that amplified past and future spatially compound heatwave‐flooding events (SCHFE)Atmospheric circulation dynamically contributed 49.21% to the 2022 SCHFE's intensity and increased event likelihood more than fourfoldAnthropogenic warming contributed 42.31% to the intensity thermodynamically and further elevated the probability of both La Niña and SCHFE [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: |
Complementary Index |