First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble.
| Title: | First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Dankers R; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom.; Arnell NW; Clark DB; Falloon PD; Fekete BM; Gosling SN; Heinke J; Kim H; Masaki Y; Satoh Y; Stacke T; Wada Y; Wisser D |
| Source: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2014 Mar 04; Vol. 111 (9), pp. 3257-61. Date of Electronic Publication: 2013 Dec 16. |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 7505876 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1091-6490 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00278424 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: Washington, DC : National Academy of Sciences |
| MeSH Terms: | Climate Change* ; Hydrodynamics* ; Models, Theoretical* ; Rivers*; Floods/*statistics & numerical data; Computer Simulation ; Forecasting |
| Abstract: | Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies. |
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| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: climate impacts; extremes; river flows |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20131218 Date Completed: 20140508 Latest Revision: 20240420 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC3948307 |
| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.1302078110 |
| PMID: | 24344290 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't