Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments.
| Title: | Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Ockenden MC; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England, UK. Electronic address: m.ockenden@lancaster.ac.uk.; Deasy CE; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England, UK; Department of Geography, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, England, UK; Northumbrian Water, Boldon House, Wheatlands Way, Pity Me, Durham, DH1 5FA, England, UK.; Benskin CMH; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England, UK.; Beven KJ; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England, UK.; Burke S; British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, England, UK.; Collins AL; Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, England, UK.; Evans R; Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, England, UK.; Falloon PD; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, England, UK.; Forber KJ; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England, UK.; Hiscock KM; School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, England, UK.; Hollaway MJ; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England, UK.; Kahana R; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, England, UK.; Macleod CJA; James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland, UK.; Reaney SM; Department of Geography, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, England, UK.; Snell MA; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England, UK.; Villamizar ML; School of Engineering, Liverpool University, L69 3GQ, England, UK.; Wearing C; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England, UK.; Withers PJA; Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL58 8RF, Wales, UK.; Zhou JG; School of Engineering, Liverpool University, L69 3GQ, England, UK.; Haygarth PM; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England, UK. |
| Source: | The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2016 Apr 01; Vol. 548-549, pp. 325-339. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Jan 21. |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 0330500 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1879-1026 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00489697 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Total Environ Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: Amsterdam, Elsevier. |
| MeSH Terms: | Environmental Monitoring*; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Phosphorus/*analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis; Rivers/chemistry ; Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Seasons |
| Abstract: | We hypothesise that climate change, together with intensive agricultural systems, will increase the transfer of pollutants from land to water and impact on stream health. This study builds, for the first time, an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together a) high-frequency data from the outlets of two surface water-dominated, headwater (~10km(2)) agricultural catchments, b) event-by-event analysis of nutrient transfers, c) concentration duration curves for comparison with EU Water Framework Directive water quality targets, d) event analysis of location-specific, sub-daily rainfall projections (UKCP, 2009), and e) a linear model relating storm rainfall to phosphorus load. These components, in combination, bring innovation and new insight into the estimation of future phosphorus transfers, which was not available from individual components. The data demonstrated two features of particular concern for climate change impacts. Firstly, the bulk of the suspended sediment and total phosphorus (TP) load (greater than 90% and 80% respectively) was transferred during the highest discharge events. The linear model of rainfall-driven TP transfers estimated that, with the projected increase in winter rainfall (+8% to +17% in the catchments by 2050s), annual event loads might increase by around 9% on average, if agricultural practices remain unchanged. Secondly, events following dry periods of several weeks, particularly in summer, were responsible for high concentrations of phosphorus, but relatively low loads. The high concentrations, associated with low flow, could become more frequent or last longer in the future, with a corresponding increase in the length of time that threshold concentrations (e.g. for water quality status) are exceeded. The results suggest that in order to build resilience in stream health and help mitigate potential increases in diffuse agricultural water pollution due to climate change, land management practices should target controllable risk factors, such as soil nutrient status, soil condition and crop cover.; (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.) |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Diffuse pollution; Eden; High resolution data; Phosphorus; Rainfall; Water quality |
| Substance Nomenclature: | 0 (Water Pollutants, Chemical); 27YLU75U4W (Phosphorus); N762921K75 (Nitrogen) |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20160125 Date Completed: 20160923 Latest Revision: 20180303 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.086 |
| PMID: | 26803731 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't