A proposed case-control framework to probabilistically classify individual deaths as expected or excess during extreme hot weather events.
| Title: | A proposed case-control framework to probabilistically classify individual deaths as expected or excess during extreme hot weather events. |
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| Authors: | Henderson SB; Environmental Health Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 West 12th Avenue, Vancouver, BC, V5Z 4R4, Canada. sarah.henderson@bccdc.ca.; School of Population and Public Health, The University of British Columbia, 2206 East Mall, 3rd Floor, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z3, Canada. sarah.henderson@bccdc.ca.; Gauld JS; Environmental Health Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 West 12th Avenue, Vancouver, BC, V5Z 4R4, Canada.; Rauch SA; Environmental Health Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 West 12th Avenue, Vancouver, BC, V5Z 4R4, Canada.; McLean KE; Environmental Health Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 West 12th Avenue, Vancouver, BC, V5Z 4R4, Canada.; Krstic N; Environmental Health Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 West 12th Avenue, Vancouver, BC, V5Z 4R4, Canada.; Hondula DM; Center for Policy Informatics, School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ, 85004, USA.; Kosatsky T; Environmental Health Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 West 12th Avenue, Vancouver, BC, V5Z 4R4, Canada. |
| Source: | Environmental health : a global access science source [Environ Health] 2016 Nov 15; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 109. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Nov 15. |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101147645 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1476-069X (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 1476069X NLM ISO Abbreviation: Environ Health Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, [2002- |
| MeSH Terms: | Mortality*; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects; British Columbia/epidemiology ; Aged ; Case-Control Studies ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical |
| Abstract: | Background: Most excess deaths that occur during extreme hot weather events do not have natural heat recorded as an underlying or contributing cause. This study aims to identify the specific individuals who died because of hot weather using only secondary data. A novel approach was developed in which the expected number of deaths was repeatedly sampled from all deaths that occurred during a hot weather event, and compared with deaths during a control period. The deaths were compared with respect to five factors known to be associated with hot weather mortality. Individuals were ranked by their presence in significant models over 100 trials of 10,000 repetitions. Those with the highest rankings were identified as probable excess deaths. Sensitivity analyses were performed on a range of model combinations. These methods were applied to a 2009 hot weather event in greater Vancouver, Canada.; Results: The excess deaths identified were sensitive to differences in model combinations, particularly between univariate and multivariate approaches. One multivariate and one univariate combination were chosen as the best models for further analyses. The individuals identified by multiple combinations suggest that marginalized populations in greater Vancouver are at higher risk of death during hot weather.; Conclusions: This study proposes novel methods for classifying specific deaths as expected or excess during a hot weather event. Further work is needed to evaluate performance of the methods in simulation studies and against clinically identified cases. If confirmed, these methods could be applied to a wide range of populations and events of interest. |
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| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Administrative data; Case-control; Extreme hot weather; Population mortality; Public health; Vulnerability |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20161117 Date Completed: 20170911 Latest Revision: 20260127 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC5111248 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12940-016-0195-z |
| PMID: | 27846897 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't