Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change.
| Title: | Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Ockenden MC; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, England, LA1 4YQ, UK. m.ockenden@lancaster.ac.uk.; Hollaway MJ; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, England, LA1 4YQ, UK.; Beven KJ; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, England, LA1 4YQ, UK.; Collins AL; Rothamsted Research North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon, England, EX20 2SB, UK.; Evans R; Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, CB1 1PT, England, UK.; Falloon PD; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, England, EX1 3PB, UK.; Forber KJ; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, England, LA1 4YQ, UK.; Hiscock KM; University of East Anglia, Norwich, England, NR4 7TJ, UK.; Kahana R; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, England, EX1 3PB, UK.; Macleod CJA; James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen, Scotland, AB15 8QH, UK.; Tych W; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, England, LA1 4YQ, UK.; Villamizar ML; School of Engineering, Liverpool University, Liverpool, England, L69 3GQ, UK.; Wearing C; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, England, LA1 4YQ, UK.; Withers PJA; Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, Wales, LL58 8RF, UK.; Zhou JG; School of Computing, Mathematics & Digital Technology, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, M1 5GD, UK.; Barker PA; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, England, LA1 4YQ, UK.; Burke S; British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, England, NG12 5GG, UK.; Freer JE; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK.; Johnes PJ; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK.; Snell MA; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, England, LA1 4YQ, UK.; Surridge BWJ; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, England, LA1 4YQ, UK.; Haygarth PM; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, England, LA1 4YQ, UK. p.haygarth@lancaster.ac.uk. |
| Source: | Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2017 Jul 31; Vol. 8 (1), pp. 161. Date of Electronic Publication: 2017 Jul 31. |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: Nature Pub. Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101528555 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2041-1723 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20411723 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nat Commun Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: [London] : Nature Pub. Group |
| Abstract: | Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK. |
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| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20170801 Date Completed: 20171106 Latest Revision: 20181113 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC5534432 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0 |
| PMID: | 28757602 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't