Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators.
| Title: | Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Florko KRN; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.; Tai TC; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.; Cheung WWL; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.; Ferguson SH; Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.; Sumaila UR; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.; Yurkowski DJ; Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.; Auger-Méthé M; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.; Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. |
| Source: | Ecology letters [Ecol Lett] 2021 Dec; Vol. 24 (12), pp. 2563-2575. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Sep 01. |
| Publication Type: | Letter |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101121949 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1461-0248 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 1461023X NLM ISO Abbreviation: Ecol Lett Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Publication: Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing; Original Publication: Oxford, UK : [Paris, France] : Blackwell Science ; Centre national de la recherche scientifique, c1998- |
| MeSH Terms: | Climate Change* ; Seals, Earless*; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Fishes ; Ice Cover |
| Abstract: | Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.; (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.) |
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| Grant Information: | Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; NSERC Canada Graduate Scholarship-Doctoral; Leaders Fellowship, Northern Scientific Training Program, NSERC Discovery Program; Canada Research Chair Program |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: RCP scenarios; climate change; dynamic bioclimatic envelope model; ecosystem modelling; future projection; marine food web; species distributions |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20210901 Date Completed: 20211115 Latest Revision: 20211115 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/ele.13866 |
| PMID: | 34469020 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
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