Prediction of future risk of any and higher-grade prostate cancer based on the PLCO and SELECT trials.
| Title: | Prediction of future risk of any and higher-grade prostate cancer based on the PLCO and SELECT trials. |
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| Authors: | Gelfond JA; Department of Population Health Sciences, Mail Code 7933, 7703 Floyd Curl Drive, San Antonio, TX, 78229-3900, USA. gelfondjal@uthscsa.edu.; Hernandez B; Department of Population Health Sciences, Mail Code 7933, 7703 Floyd Curl Drive, San Antonio, TX, 78229-3900, USA.; Goros M; Department of Population Health Sciences, Mail Code 7933, 7703 Floyd Curl Drive, San Antonio, TX, 78229-3900, USA.; Ibrahim JG; Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.; Chen MH; Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut, New Haven, NC, USA.; Sun W; Biostatistics Program, The Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.; Leach RJ; Department of Urology and Mays Cancer Center, University of Texas Health at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA.; Kattan MW; Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA.; Thompson IM; Department of Urology and Mays Cancer Center, University of Texas Health at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA.; CHRISTUS Santa Rosa Hospital - Medical Center, San Antonio, TX, USA.; Ankerst DP; Department of Urology and Mays Cancer Center, University of Texas Health at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA.; Departments of Mathematics, Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.; Liss M; Department of Urology and Mays Cancer Center, University of Texas Health at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA. |
| Source: | BMC urology [BMC Urol] 2022 Mar 26; Vol. 22 (1), pp. 45. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Mar 26. |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 100968571 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1471-2490 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 14712490 NLM ISO Abbreviation: BMC Urol Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, [2001- |
| MeSH Terms: | Prostatic Neoplasms*/diagnosis ; Prostatic Neoplasms*/epidemiology ; Prostatic Neoplasms*/prevention & control ; Prostate*; Cohort Studies ; Early Detection of Cancer ; Humans ; Male ; Proportional Hazards Models |
| Abstract: | Background: A model was built that characterized effects of individual factors on five-year prostate cancer (PCa) risk in the Prostate, Lung, Colon, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT). This model was validated in a third San Antonio Biomarkers of Risk (SABOR) screening cohort.; Methods: A prediction model for 1- to 5-year risk of developing PCa and Gleason > 7 PCa (HG PCa) was built on PLCO and SELECT using the Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for patient baseline characteristics. Random forests and neural networks were compared to Cox proportional hazard survival models, using the trial datasets for model building and the SABOR cohort for model evaluation. The most accurate prediction model is included in an online calculator.; Results: The respective rates of PCa were 8.9%, 7.2%, and 11.1% in PLCO (n = 31,495), SELECT (n = 35,507), and SABOR (n = 1790) over median follow-up of 11.7, 8.1 and 9.0 years. The Cox model showed higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA), BMI and age, and African American race to be associated with PCa and HGPCa. Five-year risk predictions from the combined SELECT and PLCO model effectively discriminated risk in the SABOR cohort with C-index 0.76 (95% CI [0.72, 0.79]) for PCa, and 0.74 (95% CI [0.65,0.83]) for HGPCa.; Conclusions: A 1- to 5-year PCa risk prediction model developed from PLCO and SELECT was validated with SABOR and implemented online. This model can individualize and inform shared screening decisions.; (© 2022. The Author(s).) |
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| Grant Information: | R01 CA179115 United States CA NCI NIH HHS; U01 CA182883 United States CA NCI NIH HHS; UG1 CA189974 United States CA NCI NIH HHS; U01 CA086402 United States CA NCI NIH HHS; R01 GM070335 United States GM NIGMS NIH HHS; UM1 CA182883 United States CA NCI NIH HHS |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Five-year risk; High grade prostate cancer; Prostate cancer; Risk prediction |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20220330 Date Completed: 20220404 Latest Revision: 20240512 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC8966358 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12894-022-00986-w |
| PMID: | 35351104 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article