Rainfall anomalies and typhoid fever in Blantyre, Malawi.
| Title: | Rainfall anomalies and typhoid fever in Blantyre, Malawi. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Gauld JS; Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, USA.; Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.; Bilima S; Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Research Programme, Kamuzu University of Health Sciences, Blantyre, Malawi.; Diggle PJ; Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.; Feasey NA; Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Research Programme, Kamuzu University of Health Sciences, Blantyre, Malawi.; Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.; Read JM; Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK. |
| Source: | Epidemiology and infection [Epidemiol Infect] 2022 May 10; Vol. 150, pp. e122. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 May 10. |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: Cambridge University Press Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 8703737 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1469-4409 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 09502688 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Epidemiol Infect Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: Cambridge Eng : Cambridge University Press |
| MeSH Terms: | Rain*; Typhoid Fever/*epidemiology; Malawi/epidemiology ; Typhoid Fever/prevention & control ; Drug Resistance, Multiple ; Humans ; Incidence ; Poisson Distribution ; Poverty ; Sanitation ; Social Class |
| Abstract: | Typhoid fever is a major cause of illness and mortality in low- and middle-income settings. We investigated the association of typhoid fever and rainfall in Blantyre, Malawi, where multi-drug-resistant typhoid has been transmitting since 2011. Peak rainfall preceded the peak in typhoid fever by approximately 15 weeks [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.3, 17.7], indicating no direct biological link. A quasi-Poisson generalised linear modelling framework was used to explore the relationship between rainfall and typhoid incidence at biologically plausible lags of 1-4 weeks. We found a protective effect of rainfall anomalies on typhoid fever, at a two-week lag (P = 0.006), where a 10 mm lower-than-expected rainfall anomaly was associated with up to a 16% reduction in cases (95% CI 7.6, 26.5). Extreme flooding events may cleanse the environment of S. Typhi, while unusually low rainfall may reduce exposure from sewage overflow. These results add to evidence that rainfall anomalies may play a role in the transmission of enteric pathogens, and can help direct future water and sanitation intervention strategies for the control of typhoid fever. |
| References: | PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Jan 09;8(1):e2642. (PMID: 24416466); Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1980;74(5):553-6. (PMID: 7210105); Epidemiol Infect. 1992 Dec;109(3):371-88. (PMID: 1468522); Am J Epidemiol. 2014 Feb 1;179(3):344-52. (PMID: 24256618); Clin Infect Dis. 2014 May;58(9):1230-40. (PMID: 24519873); PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2013;7(1):e1998. (PMID: 23359825); Sci Rep. 2018 May 2;8(1):6870. (PMID: 29720736); J R Sanit Inst. 1951 Jan;71(1):57-60. (PMID: 14804632); Clin Infect Dis. 2015 Nov 1;61 Suppl 4:S251-8. (PMID: 26449939); Lancet Infect Dis. 2019 Apr;19(4):369-381. (PMID: 30792131); Clin Infect Dis. 2020 Mar 17;70(7):1278-1284. (PMID: 31144715); Vaccine. 2019 Jan 7;37(2):214-216. (PMID: 29661581); PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 Jan 06;10(1):e0004346. (PMID: 26735696); Sci Rep. 2019 Dec 30;9(1):20310. (PMID: 31889080); PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015 Apr 24;9(4):e0003748. (PMID: 25909750) |
| Grant Information: | United Kingdom WT_ Wellcome Trust |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Typhoid fever; rainfall; statistical analysis; weather |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20220510 Date Completed: 20220704 Latest Revision: 20220726 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC9254155 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/S0950268822000759 |
| PMID: | 35535751 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't