Descriptive epidemiology and spatial analysis of African swine fever epidemics in Can Tho, Vietnam, 2019.
| Title: | Descriptive epidemiology and spatial analysis of African swine fever epidemics in Can Tho, Vietnam, 2019. |
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| Authors: | Hien ND; Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, College of Agriculture, Can Tho University, Campus II, 3/2 street, Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho, Viet Nam; Can Tho Sub-Department of Animal Health, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 30/4 street, Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho, Viet Nam. Electronic address: ndhien@ctu.edu.vn.; Nguyen LT; Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, College of Agriculture, Can Tho University, Campus II, 3/2 street, Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho, Viet Nam. Electronic address: ntlam@ctu.edu.vn.; Isoda N; Laboratory of Microbiology, Department of Disease Control, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, North 18, West 9, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0818, Japan. Electronic address: nisoda@vetmed.hokudai.ac.jp.; Sakoda Y; Laboratory of Microbiology, Department of Disease Control, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, North 18, West 9, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0818, Japan. Electronic address: sakoda@vetmed.hokudai.ac.jp.; Hoang LT; Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, College of Agriculture, Can Tho University, Campus II, 3/2 street, Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho, Viet Nam; Can Tho Sub-Department of Animal Health, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 30/4 street, Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho, Viet Nam. Electronic address: lthoang1975@yahoo.com.vn.; Stevenson MA; Asia-Pacific Centre for Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia. Electronic address: mark.stevenson1@unimelb.edu.au. |
| Source: | Preventive veterinary medicine [Prev Vet Med] 2023 Feb; Vol. 211, pp. 105819. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Dec 15. |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: Elsevier Scientific Publishing Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 8217463 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1873-1716 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 01675877 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Prev Vet Med Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Publication: Amsterdam : Elsevier Scientific Publishing; Original Publication: Amsterdam, Netherlands : Elsevier, [1982- |
| MeSH Terms: | African Swine Fever*/prevention & control ; Epidemics*/veterinary ; Swine Diseases*/epidemiology ; African Swine Fever Virus*; Vietnam/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks/veterinary ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control ; Swine ; Animals ; Spatial Analysis ; Sus scrofa |
| Abstract: | The objectives of this study were to describe the epidemiology of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify factors that increased commune-level risk for ASF in Can Tho, a province in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam. In 2019, a total of 2377 of the 5220 pig farms in Can Tho were ASF positive, an incidence risk of 46 (95% CI 44-47) ASF positive farms for every 100 farms at risk. Throughout the outbreak ASF resulted in either the death or culling of 59,529 pigs out of a total population size of 124,516 (just under half of the total pig population, 48%). After the first detection in Can Tho in May 2019, ASF spread quickly across all districts with an estimated dissemination ratio (EDR) of greater than one up until the end of July 2019. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was developed to identify risk factors for ASF. One hundred unit increases in the number of pigs per square kilometre was associated with a 1.28 (95% CrI 1.05-1.55) fold increase in commune-level ASF incidence rate. One unit increases in the number of pig farms per square kilometre was associated with a 0.91 (95% CrI 0.84-0.99) decrease in commune-level ASF incidence rate. Mapping spatially contiguous communes with elevated (unaccounted-for) ASF risk provide a means for generating hypotheses for continued disease transmission. We propose that the analyses described in this paper might be run on an ongoing basis during an outbreak and disease control efforts modified in light of the information provided.; (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.) |
| Competing Interests: | Declaration of Competing Interest None. |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: African swine fever; Can Tho; Epidemiology; Risk factors; Vietnam |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20221226 Date Completed: 20230117 Latest Revision: 20230117 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105819 |
| PMID: | 36571907 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article