Comparison of model predictions of typhoid conjugate vaccine public health impact and cost-effectiveness.
| Title: | Comparison of model predictions of typhoid conjugate vaccine public health impact and cost-effectiveness. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Burrows H; Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA. Electronic address: holly.burrows@princeton.edu.; Antillón M; Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.; Gauld JS; Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.; Kim JH; Public Health, Access, and Vaccine Epidemiology (PAVE) Unit, International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea.; Mogasale V; Policy and Economic Research Department, International Vaccine Institute, Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea.; Ryckman T; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.; Andrews JR; Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.; Lo NC; Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.; Pitzer VE; Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA. Electronic address: virginia.pitzer@yale.edu. |
| Source: | Vaccine [Vaccine] 2023 Jan 23; Vol. 41 (4), pp. 965-975. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Dec 29. |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: Elsevier Science Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 8406899 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1873-2518 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 0264410X NLM ISO Abbreviation: Vaccine Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Publication: Amsterdam, The Netherlands : Elsevier Science; Original Publication: [Guildford, Surrey, UK] : Butterworths, [c1983- |
| MeSH Terms: | Typhoid Fever*/epidemiology ; Typhoid Fever*/prevention & control ; Typhoid-Paratyphoid Vaccines*; Humans ; Public Health ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Vaccines, Conjugate |
| Abstract: | Models are useful to inform policy decisions on typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) deployment in endemic settings. However, methodological choices can influence model-predicted outcomes. To provide robust estimates for the potential public health impact of TCVs that account for structural model differences, we compared four dynamic and one static mathematical model of typhoid transmission and vaccine impact. All models were fitted to a common dataset of age-specific typhoid fever cases in Kolkata, India. We evaluated three TCV strategies: no vaccination, routine vaccination at 9 months of age, and routine vaccination at 9 months with a one-time catch-up campaign (ages 9 months to 15 years). The primary outcome was the predicted percent reduction in symptomatic typhoid cases over 10 years after vaccine introduction. For three models with economic analyses (Models A-C), we also compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), calculated as the incremental cost (US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. Routine vaccination was predicted to reduce symptomatic cases by 10-46 % over a 10-year time horizon under an optimistic scenario (95 % initial vaccine efficacy and 19-year mean duration of protection), and by 2-16 % under a pessimistic scenario (82 % initial efficacy and 6-year mean protection). Adding a catch-up campaign predicted a reduction in incidence of 36-90 % and 6-35 % in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Vaccine impact was predicted to decrease as the relative contribution of chronic carriers to transmission increased. Models A-C all predicted routine vaccination with or without a catch-up campaign to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination, with ICERs varying from $95-789 per DALY averted; two models predicted the ICER of routine vaccination alone to be greater than with the addition of catch-up campaign. Despite differences in model-predicted vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness, routine vaccination plus a catch-up campaign is likely to be impactful and cost-effective in high incidence settings such as Kolkata.; (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.) |
| Competing Interests: | Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: VEP is a member of the WHO Immunization and Vaccine-related Implementation Research Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC). All other authors have no conflicts to declare. |
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| Grant Information: | DP2 AI170485 United States AI NIAID NIH HHS |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Economic evaluation; Mathematical modeling; Model comparison; Typhoid conjugate vaccines; Typhoid fever |
| Substance Nomenclature: | 0 (Vaccines, Conjugate); 0 (Typhoid-Paratyphoid Vaccines) |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20221231 Date Completed: 20230124 Latest Revision: 20240319 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC9880559 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.12.032 |
| PMID: | 36586741 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article