Trends and predictions of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction: findings from a multiethnic nationwide cohort.
| Title: | Trends and predictions of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction: findings from a multiethnic nationwide cohort. |
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| Authors: | Chew NWS; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Chong B; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Kuo SM; Policy, Research and Surveillance Division, Health Promotion Board, Singapore.; Jayabaskaran J; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Cai M; Policy, Research and Surveillance Division, Health Promotion Board, Singapore.; Zheng H; Khoo Teck Puat Hospital, Singapore.; Goh R; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Kong G; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Chin YH; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Imran SS; Khoo Teck Puat Hospital, Singapore.; Liang M; Khoo Teck Puat Hospital, Singapore.; Lim P; Khoo Teck Puat Hospital, Singapore.; Yong TH; Changi General Hospital, Singapore.; Liew BW; Changi General Hospital, Singapore.; Chia PL; Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore.; Ho HH; Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore.; Foo D; Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore.; Khoo D; Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore.; Huang Z; Department of Cardiology, National Heart Centre, Singapore.; Chua T; Department of Cardiology, National Heart Centre, Singapore.; Tan JWC; Department of Cardiology, National Heart Centre, Singapore.; Yeo KK; Department of Cardiology, National Heart Centre, Singapore.; Hausenloy D; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Cardiovascular & Metabolic Disorders Program, Duke-National University of Singapore Medical School, Singapore.; National Heart Research Institute Singapore, National Heart Centre, Singapore.; The Hatter Cardiovascular Institute, University College London, London, UK.; Sim HW; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, Ng Teng Fong General Hospital, Singapore.; Kua J; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, Ng Teng Fong General Hospital, Singapore.; Chan KH; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Loh PH; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, Ng Teng Fong General Hospital, Singapore.; Lim TW; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Low AF; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Chai P; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Lee CH; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Yeo TC; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Yip J; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Tan HC; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.; Mamas MA; Institute of Population Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.; Keele Cardiac Research Group, Centre for Prognosis Research, Keele University, Stoke-on-Trent, UK.; Nicholls SJ; Victorian Heart Institute, Melbourne, Australia.; Monash Heart, Monash Health, Melbourne, Australia.; Chan MY; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.; Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore. |
| Source: | The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific [Lancet Reg Health West Pac] 2023 May 31; Vol. 37, pp. 100803. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 May 31 (Print Publication: 2023). |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: Elsevier Ltd Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101774968 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2666-6065 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 26666065 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Lancet Reg Health West Pac Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: [London] : Elsevier Ltd., [2020]- |
| Abstract: | Background: Understanding the trajectories of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is necessary for healthcare policymaking. We estimated future projections of the incidence of metabolic diseases in a multi-ethnic population with AMI.; Methods: The incidence and mortality contributed by metabolic risk factors in the population with AMI (diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hypertension, hyperlipidemia, overweight/obesity, active/previous smokers) were projected up to year 2050, using linear and Poisson regression models based on the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry from 2007 to 2018. Forecast analysis was stratified based on age, sex and ethnicity.; Findings: From 2025 to 2050, the incidence of AMI is predicted to rise by 194.4% from 482 to 1418 per 100,000 population. The largest percentage increase in metabolic risk factors within the population with AMI is projected to be overweight/obesity (880.0% increase), followed by hypertension (248.7% increase), T2DM (215.7% increase), hyperlipidemia (205.0% increase), and active/previous smoking (164.8% increase). The number of AMI-related deaths is expected to increase by 294.7% in individuals with overweight/obesity, while mortality is predicted to decrease by 11.7% in hyperlipidemia, 29.9% in hypertension, 32.7% in T2DM and 49.6% in active/previous smokers, from 2025 to 2050. Compared with Chinese individuals, Indian and Malay individuals bear a disproportionate burden of overweight/obesity incidence and AMI-related mortality.; Interpretation: The incidence of AMI is projected to continue rising in the coming decades. Overweight/obesity will emerge as fastest-growing metabolic risk factor and the leading risk factor for AMI-related mortality.; Funding: This research was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03) and National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MOH-001131). The SMIR is a national, ministry-funded registry run by the National Registry of Diseases Office and funded by the Ministry of Health, Singapore.; (© 2023 The Author(s).) |
| Competing Interests: | M.Y.C. receives speaker's fees and research grants from Astra Zeneca, Abbott Technologies and Boston Scientific. S.N. has received research grant support from AstraZeneca, Amgen, Anthera, Cerenis, Eli Lilly, Esperion, InfraReDx, LipoScience; The Medicines Company, New Amsterdam Pharma, Novartis, Resverlogix, Roche, and Sanofi-Regeneron; he has received consulting fees from Akcea, Amarin, Anthera, AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, CSL Behring, Eli Lilly, Esperion, Omthera, Merck, Resverlogix, Sanof-Regeneron, Takeda, and Vaxxinity. N.W.S.C. has received research grant support from NUHS Seed Fund and National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship. |
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| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Acute myocardial infarction; Incidence; Metabolic risk factors; Mortality; Public health |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20230911 Latest Revision: 20230913 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC10485675 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100803 |
| PMID: | 37693863 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article