Effectiveness and efficiency of immunisation strategies to prevent RSV among infants and older adults in Germany: a modelling study.
| Title: | Effectiveness and efficiency of immunisation strategies to prevent RSV among infants and older adults in Germany: a modelling study. |
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| Authors: | Krauer F; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Guenther F; Immunisation Unit, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.; Treskova-Schwarzbach M; Immunisation Unit, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.; Schoenfeld V; Immunisation Unit, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.; Koltai M; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Jit M; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Hodgson D; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Schneider U; Techniker Krankenkasse, Hamburg, Germany.; Wichmann O; Immunisation Unit, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.; Harder T; Immunisation Unit, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.; Sandmann FG; Immunisation Unit, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.; Flasche S; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. stefan.flasche@charite.de.; Centre for Global Health, Charite - Universitaetsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany. stefan.flasche@charite.de. |
| Source: | BMC medicine [BMC Med] 2024 Oct 17; Vol. 22 (1), pp. 478. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Oct 17. |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101190723 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1741-7015 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 17417015 NLM ISO Abbreviation: BMC Med Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: [London] : BioMed Central, 2003- |
| MeSH Terms: | Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections*/prevention & control ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections*/epidemiology ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines*/administration & dosage ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines*/immunology; Germany/epidemiology ; Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data ; Vaccination/methods ; Humans ; Infant ; Aged ; Female ; Male ; Aged, 80 and over ; Antibodies, Monoclonal ; Middle Aged ; Infant, Newborn ; Pregnancy |
| Abstract: | Background: Recently, several novel RSV immunisation products that protect infants and older adults against RSV disease have been licensed in Europe. We estimated the effectiveness and efficiency of introducing these RSV immunisation strategies in Germany.; Methods: We used a Bayesian framework to fit a deterministic age-structured dynamic transmission model of RSV to sentinel surveillance and RSV-specific hospitalisation data in Germany from 2015 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to evaluate different RSV intervention strategies over 5 years: long-acting, single-dose monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) in high-risk infants aged 1-5 months; long-acting mAbs in all infants aged 1-5 months; seasonal vaccination of pregnant women and one-time seasonal vaccination of older adults (75 + /65 + /55 + years). We performed sensitivity analysis on vaccine uptake, seasonal vs. year-round maternal vaccination, and the effect of under-ascertainment for older adults.; Results: The model was able to match the various RSV datasets. Replacing the current short-acting mAB for high-risk infants with long-acting mAbs prevented 1.1% of RSV-specific hospitalisations in infants per year at the same uptake. Expanding the long-acting mAB programme to all infants prevented 39.3% of infant hospitalisations per year. Maternal vaccination required a larger number to be immunised to prevent one additional hospitalisation than a long-acting mAB for the same uptake. Vaccination of adults older than 75 years at an uptake of 40% in addition to Nirsevimab in all infants prevented an additional 4.5% of all RSV hospitalisations over 5 years, with substantial uncertainty in the correction for under-ascertainment of the RSV burden.; Conclusions: Immunisation has the potential to reduce the RSV disease burden in Germany.; (© 2024. The Author(s).) |
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| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Immunisation; MAb; Mathematical modelling; RSV; Strategy |
| Substance Nomenclature: | 0 (Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines); 0 (Antibodies, Monoclonal) |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20241017 Date Completed: 20241018 Latest Revision: 20241206 |
| Update Code: | 20260130 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC11488180 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12916-024-03687-3 |
| PMID: | 39420374 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't