Evaluating the Prognostic Accuracy of New Scores for In-Hospital Outcomes in Cirrhotic Patients With Esophageal Variceal Bleeding.
| Title: | Evaluating the Prognostic Accuracy of New Scores for In-Hospital Outcomes in Cirrhotic Patients With Esophageal Variceal Bleeding. |
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| Authors: | Nguyen KP; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Da Nang Hospital, Da Nang, Vietnam.; Van Nguyen X; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Da Nang Hospital, Da Nang, Vietnam.; Le ND; Intensive Care Unit, Da Nang Hospital, Da Nang, Vietnam.; Doan TH; Department of Geriatrics, Da Nang Hospital, Da Nang, Vietnam. |
| Source: | Canadian journal of gastroenterology & hepatology [Can J Gastroenterol Hepatol] 2026; Vol. 2026 (1), pp. e1577589. |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: Hindawi Publishing Corporation Country of Publication: Egypt NLM ID: 101623613 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2291-2797 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 22912789 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Can J Gastroenterol Hepatol Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Publication: : Cairo : Hindawi Publishing Corporation; Original Publication: Oakville, Ontario, Canada : Pulsus, [2014]- |
| MeSH Terms: | Esophageal and Gastric Varices*/mortality ; Esophageal and Gastric Varices*/etiology ; Esophageal and Gastric Varices*/surgery ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage*/etiology ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage*/mortality ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage*/surgery ; Liver Cirrhosis*/complications ; Liver Cirrhosis*/mortality; Risk Assessment/methods ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Retrospective Studies ; Middle Aged ; Hospital Mortality ; Prognosis ; Aged ; Ligation ; Severity of Illness Index ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Treatment Failure |
| Abstract: | Background: Esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB) is a serious complication of cirrhosis and a major cause of upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, carrying substantial risks of mortality and treatment failure. Prognostic scores are essential for guiding management. This study evaluated and compared the predictive accuracy of the ABC and MAP(ASH) scores with established models in cirrhotic patients with EVB.; Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 278 cirrhotic patients admitted for EVB at Da Nang Hospital, Vietnam, between January 2022 and January 2025 who underwent endoscopic variceal ligation. Data were collected for ABC, MAP(ASH), AIMS65, and Glasgow-Blatchford scores. Primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and 5-day treatment failure. Predictive performance was assessed using AUROCs and statistical comparisons.; Results: The ABC score achieved the highest AUROC for predicting in-hospital mortality (0.88), significantly surpassing the MAP(ASH), GBS, and AIMS65 scores (p < 0.001 for all pairwise comparisons). A similar trend was observed for predicting 5-day treatment failure, where the ABC score again demonstrated the highest AUROC (0.79), outperforming both the GBS and AIMS65 scores; however, it showed comparable performance to MAP(ASH) (p = 0.19). In addition, the ABC score's risk stratification (low, medium, and high) accurately differentiated patients with varying mortality and treatment failure rates.; Conclusion: The ABC score is a highly effective and reliable tool for predicting in-hospital mortality and early treatment failure in cirrhotic patients with EVB. While the MAP(ASH) score remains valuable for predicting early treatment failure, the ABC score offers superior overall prognostic accuracy. These findings suggest that the ABC score can guide clinical decisions, particularly in resource-limited settings.; (Copyright © 2026 Khoa Phuoc Nguyen et al. Canadian Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.) |
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| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: ABC score; cirrhosis; esophageal variceal bleeding; prognostic accuracy |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20260413 Date Completed: 20260413 Latest Revision: 20260521 |
| Update Code: | 20260521 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC13184715 |
| DOI: | 10.1155/cjgh/1577589 |
| PMID: | 41969181 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
Journal Article