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Addressing Uncodable Behaviors: A Bayesian Ordinal Mixture Model Applied to a Mathematics Learning Trajectory Teaching Experiment

Title: Addressing Uncodable Behaviors: A Bayesian Ordinal Mixture Model Applied to a Mathematics Learning Trajectory Teaching Experiment
Language: English
Authors: Pavel Chernyavskiy (ORCID 0000-0002-4664-3517); Traci S. Kutaka (ORCID 0000-0003-3076-7870); Carson Keeter; Julie Sarama (ORCID 0000-0003-1275-6916); Douglas H. Clements (ORCID 0000-0003-1800-5099)
Source: Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness. 2025 18(3):673-703.
Availability: Routledge. Available from: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. 530 Walnut Street Suite 850, Philadelphia, PA 19106. Tel: 800-354-1420; Tel: 215-625-8900; Fax: 215-207-0050; Web site: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 31
Publication Date: 2025
Sponsoring Agency: Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Contract Number: R305A150243; R305A200100
Document Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Early Childhood Education; Elementary Education; Kindergarten; Primary Education
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics; Mathematics Instruction; Learning Trajectories; Item Response Theory; Responses; Teaching Methods; Problem Solving; Learning Strategies; Outcomes of Education; Instructional Effectiveness; Kindergarten; Vignettes; Measurement; Behavior Patterns; Mathematics Tests; Test Items; Student Characteristics; Comparative Analysis; Taxonomy; Correlation; Monte Carlo Methods
DOI: 10.1080/19345747.2024.2347910
ISSN: 1934-5747; 1934-5739
Abstract: When researchers code behavior that is undetectable or falls outside of the validated ordinal scale, the resultant outcomes often suffer from informative missingness. Incorrect analysis of such data can lead to biased arguments around efficacy and effectiveness in the context of experimental and intervention research. Here, we detail a new Bayesian mixture approach that analyzes ordinal responses with undetectable/uncodable behaviors in two stages: (1) estimate a likelihood of response detection and (2) estimate an Explanatory Item Response Model for the ordinal variable conditional on detection. We present an independent random effects and correlated random effects variant of the new model and demonstrate evidence of model functionality using two simulation studies. To illustrate the utility of our proposed approach, we describe an extended application to data collected during a length measurement teaching experiment (N = 186, 56% girls, 5-6 years at preassessment). Results indicate that students assigned to a learning trajectories instructional condition were more likely to use detectable, mathematically relevant problem-solving strategies than their peers in two comparison conditions and that their problem-solving strategies were also more sophisticated.
Abstractor: As Provided
Notes: https://github.com/pchernya/oclhm_jree
IES Funded: Yes
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: EJ1502263
Database: ERIC