| Title: |
Risk of paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS-TS) during the SARS-CoV-2 alpha and delta variant waves: National observational and modelling study, 2020-21, England. |
| Authors: |
Shingleton, J; Burton, L; Williams, HE; Finnie, TJR; Bennett, E; Birrell, P; Kenny, S; Watson-Koszel, T; Viner, R; Arditi, M; DeAngelis, D; Gent, N; Ladhani, SN |
| Publisher Information: |
Frontiers Media |
| Publication Year: |
2022 |
| Collection: |
St George's University of London: Repository |
| Description: |
OBJECTIVES: Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) is a rare life-threatening complication that typically occurs several weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP). We used national and regional-level data from the COVID-19 pandemic waves in England to develop a model to predict PIMS-TS cases. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 infections in CYP aged 0-15 years in England were estimated using the PHE-Cambridge real-time model. PIMS-TS cases were identified through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit during (March-June 2020) and through Secondary Uses Services (SUS) from November 2020. A predictive model was developed to estimate PIMS-TS risk and lag times after SARS-CoV-2 infections. RESULTS: During the Alpha wave, the model accurately predicted PIMS-TS cases (506 vs. 502 observed cases), with a median estimated risk of 0.038% (IQR, 0.037-0.041%) of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections. For the Delta wave, the median risk of PIMS-TS was significantly lower at 0.026% (IQR, 0.025-0.029%), with 212 observed PIMS-TS cases compared to 450 predicted by the model. CONCLUSIONS: The model accurately predicted national and regional PIMS-TS cases in CYP during the Alpha wave. PIMS-TS cases were 53% lower than predicted during the Delta wave. Further studies are needed to understand the mechanisms of the observed lower risk with the Delta variant. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
application/pdf |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
2296-2360 |
| Relation: |
https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/115232/1/fped-10-1034280.pdf; https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/115232/6/Data%20Sheet%201.pdf; Shingleton, J; Burton, L; Williams, HE; Finnie, TJR; Bennett, E; Birrell, P; Kenny, S; Watson-Koszel, T; Viner, R; Arditi, M; et al. Shingleton, J; Burton, L; Williams, HE; Finnie, TJR; Bennett, E; Birrell, P; Kenny, S; Watson-Koszel, T; Viner, R; Arditi, M; DeAngelis, D; Gent, N; Ladhani, SN (2022) Risk of paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS-TS) during the SARS-CoV-2 alpha and delta variant waves: National observational and modelling study, 2020-21, England. Front Pediatr, 10. p. 1034280. ISSN 2296-2360 https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2022.1034280 SGUL Authors: Ladhani, Shamez Nizarali |
| DOI: |
10.3389/fped.2022.1034280 |
| Availability: |
https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/115232/; https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/115232/6/Data%20Sheet%201.pdf; https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2022.1034280 |
| Rights: |
cc_by_4 |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.2C5D3FD0 |
| Database: |
BASE |