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Climate change, ungulate pressure and forest diversification: exploring trade-offs through simulation

Title: Climate change, ungulate pressure and forest diversification: exploring trade-offs through simulation
Authors: Pau, Mathilde; Jonard, Mathieu; Frédéric, André; Ligot, Gauthier
Source: Adapting temperate forest management to climate change: from assessment to solutions, Orléans, France [FR], from 10 June to 12 june 2025
Publication Year: 2025
Collection: University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography)
Subject Terms: Life sciences; Environmental sciences & ecology; Sciences du vivant; Sciences de l’environnement & écologie
Description: editorial reviewed ; Forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services, including timber production, carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, climate regulation, and recreation. However, their capacity to maintain these services is increasingly threatened by global change. Rising temperatures, more frequent extreme weather events, and changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are expected to alter forest dynamics, composition, and resilience. In Western Europe, forests dominated by Fagus sylvatica and Quercus spp. are particularly vulnerable. Simultaneously, increasing ungulate densities exert additional pressure on forest regeneration, potentially compromising long-term forest sustainability. Promoting forest diversification—both in species composition and structural complexity—has been identified as a promising strategy to enhance forest resilience. Mixed and heterogeneous stands are expected to better withstand disturbances while maintaining productivity and carbon storage. Yet, forest owners remain cautious about adopting such strategies due to concerns over potential economic losses. This study explores the potential of diversification in mitigating the effects of climate change and ungulate pressure. Using the tree-level, process-based, spatially explicit HETEROFOR model, we simulated forest dynamics over 120 years across six representative sites in western Europe. Simulations were conducted under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0), four ungulate densities (no pressure, low pressure, medium pressure, high pressure) and three silvicultural strategies: business-as-usual (BAU), oak preservation (OAK), and diversification (DIV). Forest performance was assessed using 44 indicators summarized into five scores: Productivity, Profitability, Sustainability, Carbon, and Resilience. Our results show that diversification enhances forest adaptability while maintaining economic viability. However, high ungulate pressure significantly reduces its effectiveness, emphasizing the need for ...
Document Type: conference object
Language: English
Relation: https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/333170; info:hdl:2268/333170; https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/333170/1/202506_RegePlus_orl%c3%a9ans_v2.pptx
Availability: https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/333170; https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/333170/1/202506_RegePlus_orl%c3%a9ans_v2.pptx
Rights: open access ; http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 ; info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Accession Number: edsbas.3D8F8DE7
Database: BASE