A Sentiment-Based Explanation of the Forward Premium Puzzle *
| Title: | A Sentiment-Based Explanation of the Forward Premium Puzzle * |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Jianfeng Yu; Jel Codes G |
| Contributors: | The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
| Source: | http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2011/0090.pdf. |
| Publication Year: | 2011 |
| Collection: | CiteSeerX |
| Description: | This paper presents a sentiment-based explanation of the forward premium puzzle. Agents over- or underestimate the growth rate of the economy. All else equal, when perceived domestic growth is higher than perceived foreign growth, the domestic interest rate is higher than the foreign interest rate. At the same time, an econometrician would expect an increase in the home currency value. Together, the model with investor misperception can account for the forward premium puzzle. In addition, it helps explain the low correlation of consumption growth differentials and exchange rate growth and the high stock market correlation across countries, despite a low correlation of fundamentals. Finally, this paper provides direct empirical evidence supporting the mechanism in the sentiment-based explanation. |
| Document Type: | text |
| File Description: | application/pdf |
| Language: | English |
| Relation: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.405.3739; http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2011/0090.pdf |
| Availability: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.405.3739; http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2011/0090.pdf |
| Rights: | Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
| Accession Number: | edsbas.3EC825A3 |
| Database: | BASE |