| Title: |
ABC-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients : development, external validation and comparison with other available scores |
| Authors: |
Marcolino, Milena S.; Pires, Magda C.; Ramos, Lucas Emanuel F.; Silva, Rafael T.; Oliveira, Luana M.; Carvalho, Rafael L.R.; Mourato, Rodolfo Lucas S.; Sánchez-Montalvá, Adrián; Raventós, Berta; Anschau, Fernando; Chatkin, José Miguel; Nogueira, Matheus C.A.; Guimarães-Júnior, Milton H.; Vietta, Giovanna G.; Duani, Helena; Ponce, Daniela; Ziegelmann, Patricia K.; Castro, Luís C.; Ruschel, Karen B.; Cimini, Christiane C.R.; Francisco, Saionara C.; Floriani, Maiara A.; Nascimento, Guilherme F.; Farace, Bárbara L.; Monteiro, Luanna S.; Souza-Silva, Maira V.R.; Sales, Thais L.S.; Martins, Karina Paula M.P.; Borges do Nascimento, Israel J.; Fereguetti, Tatiani O.; Ferrara, Daniel T.M.O.; Botoni, Fernando A.; Etges, Ana Paula B.S.; Schwarzbold, Alexandre V.; Maurílio, Amanda O.; Scotton, Ana Luiza B.A.; Weber, André P.; Costa, André S.M.; Glaeser, Andressa B.; Madureira, Angélica Aparecida C.; de Castro, Bruno Mateus; da Silva, Carla Thais C.A.; Ramos, Carolina M.; Gomes, Caroline D.; de Carvalho, Cíntia A.; Silveira, Daniel V.; Cezar, Edilson; Pereira, Elayne C.; Kroger, Emanuele Marianne S.; Vallt, Felipe B.; Lucas, Fernanda B.; Aranha, Fernando G.; Bartolazzi, Frederico; Crestani, Gabriela P.; Bastos, Gisele A.N.; Madeira, Glícia Cristina de C.; Noal, Helena Carolina; Vianna, Heloisa R.; Guimarães, Henrique C.; Gomes, Isabela M.; Molina Romero, Israel; de Alvarenga, Joice C.; Guimarães, Júlia D.S.S.; de Morais, Júlia D.P.; Rugolo, Juliana M.; Pontes, Karen Cristina J.R.; dos Santos, Kauane Aline M.; de Oliveira, Leonardo S.; Pinheiro, Lílian S.; Pacheco, Liliane S.; Sousa, Lucas de D.; Couto, Luciana S.F.; Kopittke, Luciane; de Moura, Luis Cesar S.; Santos, Luisa Elem A.; Cabral, Máderson A.S.; Souza, Maíra D.; Tofani, Marcela G.T.; Carneiro, Marcelo; Ferreira, Maria Angélica P.; Bicalho, Maria Aparecida Camargos; Lima, Maria Clara P.B.; Godoy, Mariana F.; Cardoso, Marilia M.A.; Figueiredo, Meire P.; Sampaio, Natália C.S.; Rangel, Natália L.; Crespo, Natália T.; de Oliveira, Neimy R.; Assaf, Pedro L.; Martelli, Petrônio José de L.; Almeida, Rafaela S.C.; Martins, Raphael C.; Lutkmeier, Raquel; Valacio, Reginaldo Aparecido; Finger, Renan G.; Cardoso, Ricardo B.; Pozza, Roberta; Campos, Roberta X.; Menezes, Rochele M.; de Abreu, Roger M.; Silva, Rufino de F.; Guimarães, Silvana M.M.; Pereira, Susany Anastácia; Oliveira, Talita F.; Kurtz, Tatiana; de Oliveira, Thainara C.; Araújo, Thaíza Simônia M.A.; Diniz, Thulio Henrique O.; dos Santos, Veridiana B.; Gomes, Virginia Mara R.; do Vale, Vitor Augusto L.; Ramires, Yuri C.; Boersma, Eric; Polanczyk, Carisi A.; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona |
| Publication Year: |
2021 |
| Collection: |
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona: Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB |
| Subject Terms: |
COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Mortality; Prognosis; Risk factors; Hospitalizations; Score |
| Description: |
The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones. Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March-July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August-September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. Median (25-75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48-72) years, and in-hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO/FiO ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829-0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833-0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870-0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
application/pdf |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
18783511 |
| Relation: |
International journal of infectious diseases; Vol. 110 (july 2021), p. 281-308; https://ddd.uab.cat/record/281825; urn:10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.049; urn:oai:ddd.uab.cat:281825; urn:pmcid:PMC8302820; urn:pmid:34311100; urn:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8302820; urn:articleid:18783511v110p281 |
| Availability: |
https://ddd.uab.cat/record/281825 |
| Rights: |
open access ; Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades. ; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.43732E8 |
| Database: |
BASE |