| Title: |
Risk of paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS-TS) during the SARS-CoV-2 alpha and delta variant waves: National observational and modelling study, 2020-21, England |
| Authors: |
Shingleton, Joseph; Burton, Lucy; Williams, Hannah E; Finnie, Thomas JR; Bennett, Emma; Birrell, Paul; Kenny, Simon; Watson-Koszel, Tiffany; Viner, Russell; Arditi, Moshe; DeAngelis, Daniela; Gent, Nick; Ladhani, Shamez N; PSU, PIMS TS Invest Team |
| Source: |
Frontiers in Pediatrics , 10 , Article 1034280. (2022) |
| Publisher Information: |
FRONTIERS MEDIA SA |
| Publication Year: |
2022 |
| Collection: |
University College London: UCL Discovery |
| Subject Terms: |
Science & Technology; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; Pediatrics; PIMS-TS; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant; SARS-COV-2 delta variant; CHILDREN; DISEASE; VIRULENCE; RESPONSES; BACTERIAL |
| Description: |
OBJECTIVES: Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) is a rare life-threatening complication that typically occurs several weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP). We used national and regional-level data from the COVID-19 pandemic waves in England to develop a model to predict PIMS-TS cases. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 infections in CYP aged 0-15 years in England were estimated using the PHE-Cambridge real-time model. PIMS-TS cases were identified through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit during (March-June 2020) and through Secondary Uses Services (SUS) from November 2020. A predictive model was developed to estimate PIMS-TS risk and lag times after SARS-CoV-2 infections. RESULTS: During the Alpha wave, the model accurately predicted PIMS-TS cases (506 vs. 502 observed cases), with a median estimated risk of 0.038% (IQR, 0.037-0.041%) of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections. For the Delta wave, the median risk of PIMS-TS was significantly lower at 0.026% (IQR, 0.025-0.029%), with 212 observed PIMS-TS cases compared to 450 predicted by the model. CONCLUSIONS: The model accurately predicted national and regional PIMS-TS cases in CYP during the Alpha wave. PIMS-TS cases were 53% lower than predicted during the Delta wave. Further studies are needed to understand the mechanisms of the observed lower risk with the Delta variant. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
text |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10177016/ |
| Availability: |
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10177016/1/fped-10-1034280.pdf; https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10177016/ |
| Rights: |
open |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.4A0E14D3 |
| Database: |
BASE |