| Title: |
Bringing it all together: Science and modelling priorities to support international climate policy |
| Authors: |
Jones, Colin Gareth; Adloff, Fanny; Booth, Ben; Cox, Peter; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Frieler, Katja; Hewitt, Helene; Jeffery, Hazel; Joussaume, Sylvie; Koenigk, Torben; Lawrence, Bryan N.; O'Rourke, Eleanor; Roberts, Malcolm; Sanderson, Benjamin; Séférian, Roland; Somot, Samuel; Vidale, Pier-Luigi; van Vuuren, Detlef; Acosta, Mario; Bentsen, Mats; Bernardello, Raffaele; Betts, Richard; Blockley, Ed; Boé, Julien; Bracegirdle, Tom; Braconnot, Pascale; Brovkin, Victor; Buontempo, Carlo; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Donat, Markus G.; Epicoco, Italo; Falloon, Pete; Fiore, Sandro; Froelicher, Thomas; Fuckar, Neven; Gidden, Matthew; Goessling, Helge; Graversen, Rune Grand; Gualdi, Silvio; Gutiérrez, Jose Manuel; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jacob, Daniela; Jones, Chris; Juckes, Martin; Kendon, Elizabeth; Kjellström, Erik; Knutti, Reto; Lowe, Jason A.; Mizielinski, Matthew; Nassisi, Paola; Obersteiner, Michael; Regnier, Pierre; Roehrig, Romain; Salas y Melia, David; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Schulz, Michael; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Terray, Laurent; Thiemann, Hannes; Wood, Richard; Yang, Shuting; Zaehle, Sönke |
| Publisher Information: |
Copernicus Publications |
| Publication Year: |
2024 |
| Collection: |
Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA (Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Bibliothek Hannover) |
| Subject Terms: |
article; Verlagsveröffentlichung |
| Description: |
We review how the international modelling community, encompassing Integrated Assessment models, global and regional Earth system and climate models, and impact models, have worked together over the past few decades, to advance understanding of Earth system change and its impacts on society and the environment, and support international climate policy. We then recommend a number of priority research areas for the coming ~6 years (i.e. until ~2030), a timescale that matches a number of newly starting international modelling activities and encompasses the IPCC 7th Assessment Report (AR7) and the 2nd UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these areas will significantly advance our understanding of Earth system change and its impacts and increase the quality and utility of science support to climate policy. We emphasize the need for continued improvement in our understanding of, and ability to simulate, the coupled Earth system and the impacts of Earth system change. There is an urgent need to investigate plausible pathways and emission scenarios that realize the Paris Climate Targets, including pathways that overshoot the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets, before later returning to them. Earth System models (ESMs) need to be capable of thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots, in particular, the efficacy of negative CO2 emission actions in reducing atmospheric CO2 and driving global cooling. An improved assessment of the long-term consequences of stabilizing climate at 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures is also required. We recommend ESMs run overshoot scenarios in CO2-emission mode, to more fully represent coupled climate - carbon cycle feedbacks. Regional downscaling and impact models should also use forcing data from these simulations, so impact and regional climate projections are as realistic as possible. An accurate simulation of the observed record remains a key requirement of models, as does accurate simulation of key metrics, such as the Effective Climate Sensitivity. For adaptation, improved guidance ... |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
electronic |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00071748 |
| DOI: |
10.5194/egusphere-2024-453 |
| Availability: |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453; https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00071748; https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00070009/egusphere-2024-453.pdf; https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-453/egusphere-2024-453.pdf |
| Rights: |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ; uneingeschränkt ; info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.4AF5D86F |
| Database: |
BASE |