| Title: |
UK Hydrological Outlook using historic weather analogues |
| Authors: |
Chan, Wilson; Facer-Childs, Katie A.; Tanguy, Maliko; Magee, Eugene; Bulut, Burak; Stringer, Nicky; Knight, Jeff; Hannaford, Jamie |
| Publisher Information: |
European Geosciences Union |
| Publication Year: |
2026 |
| Collection: |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
| Subject Terms: |
Hydrology; Meteorology and Climatology |
| Description: |
Skilful seasonal hydrological forecasts are beneficial for water resources planning and disaster risk reduction. The UK Hydrological Outlook (UKHO) provides river flow and groundwater level forecasts at the national scale. Alongside the standard Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method, a new Historic Weather Analogues (HWA) method has recently been implemented. The HWA method samples within high resolution historical observations for analogue months that matches the atmospheric circulation patterns forecasted by a dynamical weather forecasting model. In this study, we conduct a hindcast experiment using the GR6J hydrological model to assess where and when the HWA method is skilful across a set of 314 UK catchments for different seasons. We benchmark the skill against the standard ESP and climatology forecasts to understand to what extent the HWA method represents an improvement to existing forecasting methods. Results show the HWA method improves river flow forecasts most notably in winter, with skilful winter river f low forecasts now possible across the UK compared to the standard ESP method where skilful forecasts were only possible in southeast England. Winter river flow forecasts using the HWA method were also more skilful in discriminating high and low flows across all regions. Catchments with the greatest improvement tended to be upland, fast responding catchments with limited catchment storage and where river f low variability is strongly tied with climate variability. Skilful winter river flow predictability was possible due to relatively high forecast skill of winter atmospheric circulation patterns and the ability of the HWA method to derive high resolution meteorological inputs suitable for catchment hydrological modelling. However, skill was not uniform across different seasons. Improvement in river flow forecast skill for other seasons was modest, such as moderate improvements in northern England and northeast Scotland during spring and little change in autumn. Skilful summer flow ... |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
text |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/541117/1/N541117JA.pdf; Chan, Wilson orcid:0000-0003-4296-3203; Facer-Childs, Katie A. orcid:0000-0003-1060-9103; Tanguy, Maliko orcid:0000-0002-1516-6834; Magee, Eugene orcid:0009-0004-9043-7886; Bulut, Burak orcid:0000-0003-4567-5258; Stringer, Nicky; Knight, Jeff; Hannaford, Jamie orcid:0000-0002-5256-3310 . 2026 UK Hydrological Outlook using historic weather analogues. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 30 (4). 905-927. 10.5194/hess-30-905-2026 |
| DOI: |
10.5194/hess-30-905-2026 |
| Availability: |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/541117/; https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/541117/1/N541117JA.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-905-2026 |
| Rights: |
cc_by_4 |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.4C4D0FE3 |
| Database: |
BASE |