| Title: |
Dynamic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers |
| Authors: |
Buckner, Jack H; Chowell, Gerardo; Springborn, Michael R |
| Source: |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol 118, iss 16 |
| Publisher Information: |
eScholarship, University of California |
| Publication Year: |
2021 |
| Collection: |
University of California: eScholarship |
| Subject Terms: |
3207 Medical Microbiology (for-2020); 32 Biomedical and Clinical Sciences (for-2020); Emerging Infectious Diseases (rcdc); Vaccine Related (rcdc); Social Determinants of Health (rcdc); Prevention (rcdc); Infectious Diseases (rcdc); Coronaviruses Disparities and At-Risk Populations (rcdc); Coronaviruses Vaccines (rcdc); Coronaviruses (rcdc); Immunization (rcdc); 3.4 Vaccines (hrcs-rac); Infection (hrcs-hc); 3 Good Health and Well Being (sdg); Adult (mesh); Aged (mesh); COVID-19 (mesh); COVID-19 Vaccines (mesh); Health Personnel (mesh); Humans (mesh); Middle Aged (mesh); Models; Immunological (mesh); Physical Distancing (mesh); Vaccination (mesh); COVID-19; vaccine prioritization; essential workers |
| Description: |
COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized in multiple countries, and more are under rapid development. Careful design of a vaccine prioritization strategy across sociodemographic groups is a crucial public policy challenge given that 1) vaccine supply will be constrained for the first several months of the vaccination campaign, 2) there are stark differences in transmission and severity of impacts from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across groups, and 3) SARS-CoV-2 differs markedly from previous pandemic viruses. We assess the optimal allocation of a limited vaccine supply in the United States across groups differentiated by age and essential worker status, which constrains opportunities for social distancing. We model transmission dynamics using a compartmental model parameterized to capture current understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19, including key sources of group heterogeneity (susceptibility, severity, and contact rates). We investigate three alternative policy objectives (minimizing infections, years of life lost, or deaths) and model a dynamic strategy that evolves with the population epidemiological status. We find that this temporal flexibility contributes substantially to public health goals. Older essential workers are typically targeted first. However, depending on the objective, younger essential workers are prioritized to control spread or seniors to directly control mortality. When the objective is minimizing deaths, relative to an untargeted approach, prioritization averts deaths on a range between 20,000 (when nonpharmaceutical interventions are strong) and 300,000 (when these interventions are weak). We illustrate how optimal prioritization is sensitive to several factors, most notably, vaccine effectiveness and supply, rate of transmission, and the magnitude of initial infections. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
application/pdf |
| Language: |
unknown |
| Relation: |
qt6d14q5d8; https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6d14q5d8; https://escholarship.org/content/qt6d14q5d8/qt6d14q5d8.pdf |
| DOI: |
10.1073/pnas.2025786118 |
| Availability: |
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6d14q5d8; https://escholarship.org/content/qt6d14q5d8/qt6d14q5d8.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2025786118 |
| Rights: |
CC-BY |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.5D9A681E |
| Database: |
BASE |