| Title: |
Prediction of relapse in a French cohort of outpatients with schizophrenia (FACE-SZ): Prediction, not association. |
| Authors: |
Barbosa, Susana; Tamouza, Ryad; Leboyer, Marion; Aouizerate, Bruno; Andrieu, Christelle; Andre, Myrtille; Boukouaci, Wahid; Capdevielle, Delphine; Chereau, Isabelle; Kobayashi, Julie Clauss; Coulon, Nathalie; Dorey, Jean Michel; Davidovic, Laetitia; Dubertret, Caroline; Fakra, Eric; Fond, Guillaume; Goze, Tudi; Khalfallah, Olfa; Leignier, Sylvain; Llorca, Pierre Michel; Mallet, Jasmina; Martinuzzi, Emanuela; Misdrahi, David; Oriol, Nicolas; Pignon, Baptiste; Rey, Romain; Roux, Paul; Schürhoff, Franck; Schorr, Benoit; Urbach, Mathieu; Very, Etienne; Wu, Ching Lien; Benros, Michael; Simon, Judit; Hasan, Alkomiet; Glaichenhaus, Nicolas; Godin, Ophélia |
| Contributors: |
Institut de pharmacologie moléculaire et cellulaire (IPMC); Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) (UNS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Côte d'Azur (UniCA); Fondation FondaMental Créteil; IMRB - "Neuropsychiatrie translationnelle" Créteil (U955 Inserm - UPEC); Institut Mondor de Recherche Biomédicale (IMRB); Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12); Pôle de Psychiatrie CHU Henri Mondor; CHU Henri Mondor Créteil; Groupe Henri Mondor-Albert Chenevier-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Groupe Henri Mondor-Albert Chenevier-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP); Centre hospitalier Charles Perrens Bordeaux; Nutrition et Neurobiologie intégrée (NutriNeuro); Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Ecole nationale supérieure de chimie, biologie et physique-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE); Département Universitaire de Psychiatrie - Hôpital Sainte Marguerite - APHM (Hôpitaux Sud); Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille (APHM)-Hôpital Sainte-Marguerite CHU - APHM (Hôpitaux Sud); Département de Psychiatrie adulte Hôpital de la Colombière - CHU Montpellier; Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire Montpellier (CHRU Montpellier)-Hôpital la Colombière CHU Montpellier; Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire Montpellier (CHRU Montpellier); Institut Pascal (IP); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Institut national polytechnique Clermont Auvergne (INP Clermont Auvergne); Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA); Neuroscience et Psychiatrie Translationnelle de Strasbourg (STEP); Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM); Centre de recherche en neurosciences de Lyon - Lyon Neuroscience Research Center (CRNL); Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL); Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Hôpital Louis Mourier - AP-HP Colombes; Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP); Institut de psychiatrie et neurosciences de Paris (IPNP - U1266 Inserm); Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité); Service de Psychiatrie et d'Addictologie CHU Saint-Etienne; Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Saint-Etienne CHU Saint-Etienne (CHU ST-E)-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM); Equipe de Recherche sur les Rationalités Philosophiques et les Savoirs (ERRAPHIS); Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J); Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse); Institut de Neurosciences cognitives et intégratives d'Aquitaine (INCIA); Université de Bordeaux (UB)-SFR Bordeaux Neurosciences-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Centre de recherche en épidémiologie et santé des populations (CESP); Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Hôpital Paul Brousse; AP-HP. Université Paris Saclay-AP-HP. Université Paris Saclay-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris-Saclay; Institut de Psychotraumatisme de l’Enfant et de l’Adolescent Versailles, France; Centre Hospitalier de Versailles André Mignot (CHV)-Conseil Général des Yvelines; Copenhagen University Hospital Denmark = Københavns Universitetshospital Danmark (KUH); Medical University of Vienna = Medizinische Universität Wien (MedUni Vienna); Department of Psychiatry Oxford (POWIC); University of Oxford-Warneford Hospital Oxford (WH); Department of Internal Medicine (Klinikum Augsburg); Klinikum Augsburg; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; Labex; Fondation de France; We thank all the patients who participated in the study. The work was funded by grants from the International IF foundation (RT), Fondation de France (NG), Fondation FondaMental and the Université Côte d'Azur (SB). This project was supported by the Agence National de la Recherche (ANR) under the frame of ERA PerMed and by the ANR under reference ANR-11-IDEX-0004-02 and ANR-10-COHO-10-01. Support from the LABEX BioPSY and the LABEX SIGNALIFE (ANR-11-LABX-0028-01). This study is supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, BMBF, FKZ: 01KU2002), the Innovation Fund Denmark, the Austrian Science Fund (Wissenschaftsfonds, FWF), and the ANR under the project title “PerMedSchiz: Personalized medical treatment for schizophrenia. *List of FondaMental Advanced Center of Expertise (FACE-SZ); ANR-11-IDEX-0004-02; Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; LABEX SIGNALIFE; Innovationsfonden; Austrian Science Fund; FondaMental Advanced Center of Expertise; International Foundation; Université Côte du2019Azur; FACE-SZ; Fondation FondaMental; ANR-11-IDEX-0004,SUPER,Sorbonne Universités à Paris pour l'Enseignement et la Recherche(2011); ANR-10-COHO-0010,Psy-COH,FondaMental-Cohortes(2010); ANR-11-LABX-0028,SIGNALIFE,Réseau d'Innovation sur les Voies de Signalisation en Sciences de la Vie(2011); ANR-22-EXPR-0001,Pilotage et gouvernance du programme PROPSY,Pilotage et gouvernance du programme PROPSY(2022) |
| Source: |
ISSN: 0278-5846. |
| Publisher Information: |
CCSD; Elsevier |
| Publication Year: |
2025 |
| Collection: |
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
| Subject Terms: |
Prediction; Relapse; Schizophrenia; Word count = 3637; Immune system; Inflammation; Machine learning; [SDV.SP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Pharmaceutical sciences |
| Description: |
International audience ; BackgroundSchizophrenia (SZ) commonly manifests through multiple relapses, each impeding the path to recovery and incurring personal and societal costs. Despite the identification of various risk factors associated to the risk of relapse, the development of accurate algorithms predictive of relapse has been limited, partly due to inadequate statistical methods. Additionally, despite the wealth of data showing strong associations between inflammation and schizophrenia, the two existing studies failed to demonstrate whether inflammatory parameters could predict relapse. Our goal is then to identify clinical and inflammatory parameters associated with relapse in schizophrenia and to develop model to predict relapse in each patient.MethodsWe have used classical Cox regression, survival penalized regression, as well as survival random forests to analyze clinical and inflammatory biological data collected in the network of the Schizophrenia Expert Centers in France in which individuals with SZ are clinically assessed and followed up annually for 3 years.ResultsAmong 247 individuals with SZ, 71 (29 %) experienced a psychotic relapse during the 3-year follow-up period. The variables most consistently associated with relapses were smoking status, severity of positive symptoms and low global functioning. From a panel of inflammatory parameters, only IL-8 serum levels were associated with time to relapse. The predictive performance, assessed using C-index, was 0.54 using both penalized regression and random forests.ConclusionsWe found several clinical and biological variables consistently associated with relapses across three distinct statistical methods. However, despite these associations, the predictive capacity of these models remained low, highlighting that association does not necessarily mean prediction. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/40023308; PUBMED: 40023308; WOS: 001439355200001 |
| DOI: |
10.1016/j.pnpbp.2025.111304 |
| Availability: |
https://hal.science/hal-05029188; https://hal.science/hal-05029188v1/document; https://hal.science/hal-05029188v1/file/1-s2.0-S0278584625000582-main.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnpbp.2025.111304 |
| Rights: |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ; info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.62F464ED |
| Database: |
BASE |