| Title: |
Validation of Three Postoperative Risk Prediction Models for Intensive Care Unit Mortality after Cardiac Surgery |
| Authors: |
Howitt, Samuel Henry; Caiado, Camila; Mccollum, Charles; Goldstein, Michael; Malagon, Ignacio; Venkateswaran, Rajamiyer; Grant, Stuart William |
| Source: |
Howitt, S H, Caiado, C, Mccollum, C, Goldstein, M, Malagon, I, Venkateswaran, R & Grant, S W 2018, 'Validation of Three Postoperative Risk Prediction Models for Intensive Care Unit Mortality after Cardiac Surgery', Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgeon. https://doi.org/10.1055/s-0037-1608897 |
| Publication Year: |
2018 |
| Collection: |
The University of Manchester: Research Explorer - Publications |
| Subject Terms: |
outcomes; postoperative care; statistics; ResearchInstitutes_Networks_Beacons/MICRA; name=Manchester Institute for Collaborative Research on Ageing |
| Description: |
Background Several cardiac surgery risk prediction models based on postoperative data have been developed. However, unlike preoperative cardiac surgery risk prediction models, postoperative models are rarely externally validated or utilized by clinicians. The objective of this study was to externally validate three postoperative risk prediction models for intensive care unit (ICU) mortality after cardiac surgery. Methods The logistic Cardiac Surgery Scores (logCASUS), Rapid Clinical Evaluation (RACE), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated over the first 7 postoperative days for consecutive adult cardiac surgery patients between January 2013 and May 2015. Model discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) test, calibration plots, and observed to expected ratios. Recalibration of the models was performed. Results A total of 2255 patients were included with an ICU mortality rate of 1.8%. Discrimination for all three models on each postoperative day was good with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of >0.8. Generally, RACE and logCASUS had better discrimination than SOFA. Calibration of the RACE score was better than logCASUS, but ratios of observed to expected mortality for both were generally |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
0171-6425 |
| Relation: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/0171-6425 |
| DOI: |
10.1055/s-0037-1608897 |
| Availability: |
https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/17364f7b-a0bc-42f5-bb9d-064ca5b7ffc6; https://doi.org/10.1055/s-0037-1608897; https://pure.manchester.ac.uk/ws/files/65859852/Validation_AAM.docx; https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85040362477 |
| Rights: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.6DBDA514 |
| Database: |
BASE |