the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich, the Globalisation and Development Centre at Bond University
| Title: | the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich, the Globalisation and Development Centre at Bond University |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Axel Drehera; Silvia Marchesib; James Raymond Vreel; Jel-codes C; Benjamin J. Cohen; Martin Gassebner; Matt Golder; Nathan M. Jensen; Ahmed Khalid; Emanuela Marrocu; Katharina Michaelowa; Helen Milner; Frances Rosenbluth; All Stone; Jennifer Tobin; Francisco José Veiga; We Frank; Aldenhoff Imf; Jacqueline Oh; Thomas Schulz For Excellent |
| Contributors: | The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
| Source: | http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it/persone/marchesi/papers/marchesi_dreher_vreeland pc_08.pdf. |
| Publication Year: | 2008 |
| Collection: | CiteSeerX |
| Subject Terms: | IMF; Economic Forecasts; Political Influence |
| Description: | We investigate the political economy of IMF forecasts with data for 157 countries (1999-2005). Generally, we find evidence of forecast bias in growth and inflation. Specifically, we find that countries voting with the United States in the UN General Assembly receive lower inflation forecasts as domestic elections approach. Countries with large loans outstanding from the IMF also receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting that the IMF engages in “defensive forecasting. ” Finally, countries with fixed exchange rate regimes receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting the IMF desires to preserve stability as inflation can have detrimental effects under such an exchange rate regime. |
| Document Type: | text |
| File Description: | application/pdf |
| Language: | English |
| Relation: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.617.7682; http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it/persone/marchesi/papers/marchesi_dreher_vreeland pc_08.pdf |
| Availability: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.617.7682; http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it/persone/marchesi/papers/marchesi_dreher_vreeland pc_08.pdf |
| Rights: | Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
| Accession Number: | edsbas.6DD47542 |
| Database: | BASE |