| Title: |
Modelling the Health and Economic Impacts of Population-Wide Testing, Contact Tracing and Isolation (PTTI) Strategies for COVID-19 in the UK |
| Authors: |
Colbourn, T; Waites, W; Panovska-Griffiths, J; Manheim, D; Sturniolo, S; Colbourn, G; Bowie, C; Godfrey, KM; Peto, J; Burgess, RA; Foster, D; McCoy, D; Alwan, NA; Yao, G; Ouyang, K; Roderick, PJ; Pizzo, E; Hill, T; McGrath, N; Orcutt, M; Evans, O; Cheetham, NJ; Sculpher, M; Bonell, C; Gomes, M; Raine, R |
| Source: |
SSRN: Amsterdam, Netherlands. (2020) |
| Publisher Information: |
SSRN |
| Publication Year: |
2020 |
| Collection: |
University College London: UCL Discovery |
| Subject Terms: |
Testing; tracing and isolation; COVID-19; Epidemic suppression; economic evaluation; policy options |
| Description: |
Background: The COVID-19 epidemic in the UK has resulted in over 280,000 reported cases and over 40,000 deaths as of 5th June 2020. In the context of a slower increase in reported cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 over the last few weeks compared to earlier in the epidemic, the UK is starting to relax the physical restrictions (‘lockdown’) that have been imposed since 23 March 2020. This has been accompanied by the announcement of a strategy to test people for infection, trace contacts of those tested positive, and isolate positive diagnoses. While such policies are expected to be impactful, there is no conclusive evidence of which approach to this is likely to achieve the most appropriate balance between benefits and costs. This study combines mathematical and economic modelling to estimate the impact, costs, feasibility, and health and economic effects of different strategies. / Methods: We provide detailed description, impact, costing, and feasibility assessment of population-scale testing, tracing, and isolation strategies (PTTI). We estimate the impact of different PTTI strategies with a deterministic mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that accurately captures tracing and isolation of contacts of individuals exposed, infectious, and diagnosed with the virus. We combine this with an economic model to project the mortality, intensive care, hospital, and non-hospital case outcomes, costs to the UK National Health Service, reduction in GDP, and intervention costs of each strategy. Model parameters are derived from publicly available data, and the model is calibrated to reported deaths associated with COVID-19. We modelled 31 scenarios in total (Panel 2). The first 18 comprised nine with ‘triggers’ (labelled with the -Trig suffix) for subsequent lockdown periods (>40,000 new infections per day) and lockdown releases ( |
| Document Type: |
report |
| File Description: |
text |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10128778/ |
| Availability: |
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10128778/3/Gomes_SSRN-id3627273.pdf; https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10128778/ |
| Rights: |
open |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.6E2017F1 |
| Database: |
BASE |