| Title: |
Modelling the impact of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine and immunoprophylaxis strategies in New Zealand |
| Authors: |
Prasad, N; Read, JM; Jewell, C; Waite, B; Trenholme, AA; Huang, QS; Grant, CC; Newbern, EC; Hogan, AB |
| Contributors: |
Imperial College LOndon |
| Source: |
4390 ; 4383 |
| Publisher Information: |
Elsevier BV |
| Publication Year: |
2021 |
| Collection: |
Imperial College London: Spiral |
| Subject Terms: |
Immunoprophylaxis; Maternal vaccine; Mathematical modelling; RSV; Respiratory syncytial virus; Virology; 06 Biological Sciences; 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences; 11 Medical and Health Sciences |
| Description: |
Background Mathematical models of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission can help describe seasonal epidemics and assess the impact of potential vaccines and immunoprophylaxis with monoclonal antibodies (mAb). Methods We developed a deterministic, compartmental model for RSV transmission, which was fitted to population-based RSV hospital surveillance data from Auckland, New Zealand. The model simulated the introduction of either a maternal vaccine or a seasonal mAb among infants aged less than 6 months and estimated the reduction in RSV hospitalizations for a range of effectiveness and coverage values. Results The model accurately reproduced the annual seasonality of RSV epidemics in Auckland. We found that a maternal vaccine with effectiveness of 30–40% in the first 90 days and 15–20% for the next 90 days could reduce RSV hospitalizations by 18–24% in children younger than 3 months, by 11–14% in children aged 3–5 months, and by 2–3% in children aged 6–23 months. A seasonal infant mAb with 40–60% effectiveness for 150 days could reduce RSV hospitalizations by 30–43%, 34–48% and by 14–21% in children aged 0–2 months, 3–5 months and 6–23 months, respectively. Conclusions Our results suggest that either a maternal RSV vaccine or mAb would effectively reduce RSV hospitalization disease burden in New Zealand. Overall, a seasonal mAb resulted in a larger disease prevention impact than a maternal vaccine. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
Vaccine; http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/89775 |
| DOI: |
10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.05.100 |
| Availability: |
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/89775; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.05.100 |
| Rights: |
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.6E8C36F0 |
| Database: |
BASE |