| Title: |
A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany |
| Authors: |
Maike Irrek; Birgit Schultz; Jel-classification C |
| Contributors: |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
| Source: |
http://www.holtem.de/Dokumente/flrm_2012-03-26.pdf. |
| Publication Year: |
2012 |
| Collection: |
CiteSeerX |
| Subject Terms: |
regional long-run projection; convergence; demographic change |
| Description: |
Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this pa-per, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model features a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium and long-term projection of economic activity we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robust-ness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development. |
| Document Type: |
text |
| File Description: |
application/pdf |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.468.8340 |
| Availability: |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.468.8340; http://www.holtem.de/Dokumente/flrm_2012-03-26.pdf |
| Rights: |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.71302F9 |
| Database: |
BASE |