| Title: |
Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century |
| Authors: |
Grünig, Marc; Rammer, Werner; Senf, Cornelius; Albrich, Katharina; André, Frédéric; Augustynczik, Andrey; Baumann, Martin; Bohn, Friedrich; Bouwman, Meike; Bugmann, Harald; Collalti, Alessio; Cristal, Irina; Dalmonech, Daniela; de Coligny, Francois; Dobor, Laura; Dollinger, Christina; Espelta, Josep Maria; Forrester, David; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; González-Olabarria, José Ramón; Hiltner, Ulrike; Hlásny, Tomáš; Honkaniemi, Juha; Huber, Nica; Jonard, Mathieu; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Kunstler, Georges; Lagergren, Fredrik; Lindner, Marcus; Mina, Marco; Moos, Christine; Morin, Xavier; Muys, Bart; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Nieberg, Mats; Patacca, Marco; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Reyer, Christopher; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Storms, Ilié; Thom, Dominik; Toïgo, Maude; Seidl, Rupert |
| Contributors: |
Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM); Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (Fédération OSUG)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA); European Project: 101000574,H2020-RUR-2018-2020,H2020-RUR-2020-2,RESONATE(2021) |
| Source: |
ISSN: 0036-8075. |
| Publisher Information: |
CCSD; American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) |
| Publication Year: |
2026 |
| Collection: |
Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL |
| Subject Terms: |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
| Description: |
International audience ; Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms cause large pulses of tree mortality. Climate change amplifies these forest disturbances, yet their future magnitude and extent remain uncertain. Here, we simulated future forest disturbance regimes at 100-meter resolution across Europe using a deep learning–based simulation framework. Our results show that forest disturbances will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, with disturbed areas more than doubling relative to the recent past under an unabated continuation of climate change. Wildfires are the main agent driving future disturbance change. Changing disturbances result in an increase in young forests, substantially altering Europe’s forest demography. Because of their profound implications for forest carbon storage and the habitat value of forest ecosystems, disturbances should be a priority of forest policy and management. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//101000574/EU/Resilient forest value chains – enhancing resilience through natural and socio-economic responses/RESONATE |
| DOI: |
10.1126/science.adx6329 |
| Availability: |
https://hal.science/hal-05550590; https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adx6329 |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.725CB0EC |
| Database: |
BASE |