| Title: |
Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves |
| Authors: |
Burgard, Clara; Jourdain, Nicolas; Mosbeux, Cyrille; Caillet, Justine; Mathiot, Pierre; Kittel, Christoph |
| Contributors: |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE); Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (Fédération OSUG)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP); Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA); Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (LOCEAN-NEMO R&D); Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN); Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)); École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL); Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X); Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL); Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)); Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité); Dartmouth College Hanover; Vrije Universiteit Brussel Bruxelles (VUB); Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich (ULiège); ANR-19-P3IA-0003,MIAI,MIAI @ Grenoble Alpes(2019); ANR-22-EXTR-0008,IMPRESSION-ESM,TRansformative Advances in Climate modelling for Climate Services - Projet Ciblé 7 - IMproving the physical PRocESS representatION in Earth System Models(2022); ANR-22-EXTR-0010,ISClim,Polar Ice sheets(2022); ANR-22-CE01-0014,AIAI,Intelligence artificielle pour améliorer le couplage de la calotte Antarctique avec le système océan/atmosphère(2022); European Project: 869304,H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2019-2020,H2020-LC-CLA-2019-2,PROTECT(2020); European Project: 101003826,H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2019-2020,H2020-LC-CLA-2020-2,CRiceS(2021); European Project: 821001,H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2019-2020,H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2,SO-CHIC(2019); European Project: 101081193,HORIZON-CL5-2022-D1-02,HORIZON-CL5-2022-D1-02,OptimESM(2023); European Project: 101060452,HORIZON-CL6-2021-CLIMATE-01,HORIZON-CL6-2021-CLIMATE-01,OCEAN ICE(2022) |
| Source: |
ISSN: 0028-0836. |
| Publisher Information: |
CCSD; Nature Publishing Group |
| Publication Year: |
2025 |
| Collection: |
Université Grenoble Alpes: HAL |
| Subject Terms: |
Antarctica; Climate change; Ice shelves; Modeling; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology; [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
| Description: |
International audience ; The disappearance of ice shelves, the floating margins of the Antarctic ice sheet that restrain the ice flow into the ocean, would strongly accelerate the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. Their viability in a warming world has motivated a lot of work, strongly focussing on the influence of the warming atmosphere. Here we revisit the concept of ice-shelf viability in a holistic manner, taking into account mass loss due to both the atmosphere and the ocean to estimate when it becomes virtually impossible for the ice shelves to maintain their present-day shape. We show that, for a scenario remaining largely below 2°C of global warming, only one out of 64 ice shelves likely becomes non-viable by 2300. For a scenario reaching nearly 12°C of global warming by 2300, many ice shelves become non-viable once global warming exceeds 4.5°C, mainly due to an increase in ocean-induced melt. 26 ice shelves are likely non-viable by 2150, and 38 in 2300. Ice-sheet regions restrained by these 38 ice shelves represent a sea-level rise potential of 10 m. Our estimates are latest bounds for reaching non-viability and ice-shelf collapse could occur even earlier, in particular due to the synergy with hydrofracturing. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13768758; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//869304/EU/PROjecTing sEa-level rise : from iCe sheets to local implicaTions/PROTECT; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//101003826/EU/Climate relevant interactions and feedbacks: the key role of sea ice and snow in the polar and global climate system/CRiceS; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//821001/EU/Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate/SO-CHIC; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//101081193/EU/Optimal High Resolution Earth System Models for Exploring Future Climate Changes/OptimESM; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//101060452/EU/Ocean Cryosphere Exchanges in ANtarctica: Impacts on Climate and the Earth system/OCEAN ICE; WOS: 001603556800001 |
| DOI: |
10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w |
| Availability: |
https://hal.science/hal-05361601; https://hal.science/hal-05361601v1/document; https://hal.science/hal-05361601v1/file/2023_Summer_Paper__-14.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w |
| Rights: |
https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/ |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.75ED2F3E |
| Database: |
BASE |