The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region 1990–2021: a cross-country systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050
| Title: | The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region 1990–2021: a cross-country systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050 |
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| Authors: | Tomislav Mestrovic; Mohsen Naghavi; Gisela Robles Aguilar; Nicole Davis Weaver; Lucien R Swetschinski; Eve E Wool; Daniel T Araki; Anna Gershberg Hayoon; Authia P Gray; Chieh Han; Kevin S Ikuta; Emily Rosenblad; Hasan Aalruz; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Armita Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Salahdein Aburuz; Saira Afzal; Aqeel Ahmad; Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade; Ayman Ahmed; Haroon Ahmed; Abid Ali; Zahid Ali; Liaqat Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Sabah Al-Marwani; Omar Almidani; Rami H Al-Rifai; Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq; Karem H Alzoubi; Jessica Andretta Mendes; Jason R Andrews; Jalal Arabloo; Mosab Arafat; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout; Sina Azadnajafabad; Shahkaar Aziz; Khalil Azizian; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Zarrin Basharat; Neeraj Bedi; James A Berkley; Natalia V Bhattacharjee; Colin Stewart Brown; Yasser Bustanji; Ben S Cooper; Nihar Ranjan Dash; Christiane Dolecek; Tim Eckmanns; Abdelaziz Ed-Dra; Iman El Sayed; Muhammed Elhadi; Waseem El-Huneidi; Christelle Elias; Sally Ellis; Ibrahim Elsohaby; Babak Eshrati; Ayesha Fahim; Ali Fatehizadeh; Muhammed Shaffi Fazaludeen Koya; Alireza Feizkhah; Denise O Garrett; Ramy Mohamed Ghazy; Sama Ghoba; Konstantinos Giannakis; Rasool Haddadi; Mostafa Hadei; Sobia Ahsan Halim; Samer Hamidi; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Rumina Syeda Hasan; Hamidreza Hasani; Andrea Haekyung Haselbeck; Simon I Hay; Kamal Hezam; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Rebecca L Hsu; Nawfal R Hussein; Mohammad Tarique Imam; Kenneth Chukwuemeka Iregbu; Faisal Ismail; Abdollah Jafarzadeh; Mahsa Jalili; Reza Jalilzadeh Yengejeh; Elham Jamshidi; Nabi Jomehzadeh; Zul Kamal; Hengameh Kasraei; Faham Khamesipour; Feriha Fatima Khidri; Suwimon Khusuwan; Mohammed Kuddus; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Mansour Adam Mahmoud; Omar M Makram; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Florian Marks; Barney McManigal; Ziad Ahmed Memish; Muayad Aghali Merza; Nouh Saad Mohamed; Ali H Mokdad; AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf; Catrin E Moore; Yousef Moradi; Parsa Mousavi; Florence Neema Mturi; Muhammad Muzaffar; Pirouz Naghavi; Hastyar Hama Rashid Najmuldeen; Shumaila Nargus; Zuhair S Natto; Javaid Nauman; Muhammad Naveed; Robina Khan Niazi; Peter Olwoch; Aslam Ramjan Pathan; Simone Perna; Andrew John Pollard; Nameer Hashim Qasim; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Hazem Ramadan; Elrashdy Redwan; Inayat Ur Rehman; Luis Felipe Reyes; Victor D Rosenthal; Tilleye Runghien; Basema Ahmad Saddik; Umar Saeed; Narjes Saheb Sharif-Askari; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Morteza Saki; Zikria Saleem; Mohamed A Saleh; Abdallah M Samy; Benn Sartorius; Mahan Shafie; Humaira Shah; Samiah Shahid; Moyad Jamal Shahwan; Sadia Shakoor; Mohammad Ali Shamshirgaran; Amin Sharifan; Emmanuel Edwar Siddig; Eric A F Simões; Georgia Smith; Sameh S M Soliman; Andy Stergachis; Shima Tabatabai; Razieh Tavakoli Oliaee; Reem Temsah; Samar Tharwat; Caroline Tigoi; Irfan Ullah; Saeed Ullah; Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan; Stein Emil Vollset; Yasir Waheed; Judd L Walson; Muhammad Waqas; Phoebe C M Williams; Sajad Yaghoubi; Chun-Wei Yuan; Fathiah Zakham; Iman Zare; Mohammed G M Zeariya; Christopher J L Murray |
| Contributors: | T. Mestrovic; M. Naghavi; G. Robles Aguilar; N. Davis Weaver; L. R Swetschinski; E. E Wool; D. T Araki; A. Gershberg Hayoon; A. P Gray; C. Han; K. S Ikuta; E. Rosenblad; H. Aalruz; S. Abd-Elsalam; A. Abedi; H. Abolhassani; S. Aburuz; S. Afzal; A. Ahmad; A. Mahmoud Ahmadzade; A. Ahmed; H. Ahmed; A. Ali; Z. Ali; L. Ali; S. Shujait Ali; S. Al-Marwani; O. Almidani; R. H Al-Rifai; J. A Al-Tawfiq; K. H Alzoubi; J. Andretta Mende; J. R Andrew; J. Arabloo; M. Arafat; S. Shamsadin Athari; M. Moh’D Wahbi Atout; S. Azadnajafabad; S. Aziz; K. Azizian; H. Jawdat Barqawi; Z. Basharat; N. Bedi; J. A Berkley; N. V Bhattacharjee; C. Stewart Brown; Y. Bustanji; B. S Cooper; N. Ranjan Dash; C. Dolecek; T. Eckmann; A. Ed-Dra; I. El Sayed; M. Elhadi; W. El-Huneidi; C. Elia; S. Elli; I. Elsohaby; B. Eshrati; A. Fahim; A. Fatehizadeh; M. Shaffi Fazaludeen Koya; A. Feizkhah; D. O Garrett; R. Mohamed Ghazy; S. Ghoba; K. Giannaki; R. Haddadi; M. Hadei; S. Ahsan Halim; S. Hamidi; A. I Hasaballah; R. Syeda Hasan; H. Hasani; A. Haekyung Haselbeck; S. I Hay; K. Hezam; M. Hosseinzadeh; R. L Hsu; N. R Hussein; M. Tarique Imam; K. Chukwuemeka Iregbu; F. Ismail; A. Jafarzadeh; M. Jalili; R. Jalilzadeh Yengejeh; E. Jamshidi; N. Jomehzadeh; Z. Kamal; H. Kasraei; F. Khamesipour; F. Fatima Khidri; S. Khusuwan; M. Kuddu; H. Hmwe Kyu; M. Adam Mahmoud; O. M Makram; E. Malakan Rad; F. Mark; B. Mcmanigal |
| Publisher Information: | Elsevier |
| Publication Year: | 2025 |
| Collection: | The University of Milan: Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (AIR) |
| Subject Terms: | Settore MEDS-08/A - Endocrinologia |
| Description: | Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global crisis and one of the world's most complex challenges. Although there is increasing evidence of its impact on human mortality and morbidity, precise burden estimation has many challenges, and thus far has been elusive for the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Here, we present a comprehensive time-trend analysis of regional and country-level AMR burden estimates in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), between 1990 and 2021, with forecasts up to 2050. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 11 infectious syndromes, 22 bacterial pathogens, and 84 pathogen–drug combinations for the WHO EMR and each of its countries from 1990 to 2021. Data were obtained from mortality registries, surveillance systems, hospital records, systematic literature reviews, and other sources. We based our modelling approach on five broad components: the number of deaths in which infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antimicrobial drug of interest, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. These components were then used to estimate the disease burden by using two counterfactual scenarios: deaths and DALYs attributable to AMR (considering an alternative scenario where drug-resistant infections are replaced with susceptible infections), and deaths and DALYs associated with AMR (considering an alternative scenario where infections would not occur at all). Predictive statistical modelling was applied to generate estimates of AMR burden for each country. We also generated AMR burden forecasts up to 2050. We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the final estimates by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 500 draws through the multistage ... |
| Document Type: | article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Relation: | info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/41082884; info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:001642104100001; volume:10; issue:11; firstpage:e955; lastpage:e970; numberofpages:16; journal:THE LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH; https://hdl.handle.net/2434/1231592 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/S2468-2667(25)00201-4 |
| Availability: | https://hdl.handle.net/2434/1231592; https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(25)00201-4 |
| Rights: | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess ; license:Creative commons ; license uri:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Accession Number: | edsbas.80D9FF17 |
| Database: | BASE |