The Politics of IMF Forecasts
| Title: | The Politics of IMF Forecasts |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Axel Dreher; Silvia Marchesi; James R. Vreel; Jel-codes C; James R. Vreeland |
| Contributors: | The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
| Source: | http://economics.ca/2007/papers/0733.pdf. |
| Publication Year: | 2007 |
| Collection: | CiteSeerX |
| Subject Terms: | Acknowledgements; We thank Jacqueline Oh and Thomas Schulz for excellent research |
| Description: | Using panel data for 155 countries over the period 1999-2005 we empirically investigate the politics involved in IMF economic forecasts. We find a systematic bias in growth and inflation forecasts. Our results indicate that countries voting in line with the US in the UN General Assembly receive better inflation forecasts. As the US is the Fund’s major shareholder, this result supports the hypothesis that the Fund’s forecasts are not purely based on economic considerations. The “defensive lending ” hypothesis is, to some extent, confirmed by the results as inflation forecasts are systematically biased downwards for countries more exposed to the IMF. |
| Document Type: | text |
| File Description: | application/pdf |
| Language: | English |
| Relation: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.499.6471; http://economics.ca/2007/papers/0733.pdf |
| Availability: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.499.6471; http://economics.ca/2007/papers/0733.pdf |
| Rights: | Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
| Accession Number: | edsbas.83BDA356 |
| Database: | BASE |