| Title: |
Dynamic ensemble prediction of cognitive performance in spaceflight |
| Authors: |
Tu, D.; Basner, M.; Smith, M.G.; Spencer Williams, E.; Ryder, V.E.; Romoser, A.A.; Ecker, A.; Aeschbach, D.; Stahn, A.C.; Jones, C.W.; Howard, K.; Kaizi‑Lutu, M.; Dinges, D.F.; Shou, H. |
| Publisher Information: |
Nature Publishing Group |
| Publication Year: |
2022 |
| Collection: |
German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library |
| Subject Terms: |
Schlaf und Humanfaktoren |
| Description: |
During spaceflight, astronauts face a unique set of stressors, including microgravity, isolation, and confinement, as well as environmental and operational hazards. These factors can negatively impact sleep, alertness, and neurobehavioral performance, all of which are critical to mission success. In this paper, we predict neurobehavioral performance over the course of a 6-month mission aboard the International Space Station (ISS), using ISS environmental data as well as self-reported and cognitive data collected longitudinally from 24 astronauts. Neurobehavioral performance was repeatedly assessed via a 3-min Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT-B) that is highly sensitive to the effects of sleep deprivation. To relate PVT-B performance to time-varying and discordantly-measured environmental, operational, and psychological covariates, we propose an ensemble prediction model comprising of linear mixed effects, random forest, and functional concurrent models. An extensive cross-validation procedure reveals that this ensemble outperforms any one of its components alone. We also identify the most important predictors of PVT-B performance, which include an individual's previous PVT-B performance, reported fatigue and stress, and temperature and radiation dose. This method is broadly applicable to settings where the main goal is accurate, individualized prediction of human behavior involving a mixture of person-level traits and irregularly measured time series. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
application/pdf |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
2045-2322 |
| Relation: |
https://elib.dlr.de/188401/1/Tu%20et%20al%20-%20Dynamic%20ensemble%20prediction%20of%20cognitive%20performance%20in%20spaceflight%20-%20Sci%20Rep%202022.pdf; Tu, D. und Basner, M. und Smith, M.G. und Spencer Williams, E. und Ryder, V.E. und Romoser, A.A. und Ecker, A. und Aeschbach, D. und Stahn, A.C. und Jones, C.W. und Howard, K. und Kaizi‑Lutu, M. und Dinges, D.F. und Shou, H. (2022) Dynamic ensemble prediction of cognitive performance in spaceflight. Scientific Reports, 12 (1), Seite 11032. Nature Publishing Group. doi:10.1038/s41598-022-14456-8 . ISSN 2045-2322. |
| DOI: |
10.1038/s41598-022-14456-8 |
| Availability: |
https://elib.dlr.de/188401/; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14456-8 |
| Rights: |
cc_by |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.8590C43F |
| Database: |
BASE |