Civil War and Foreign Influence ∗
| Title: | Civil War and Foreign Influence ∗ |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Facundo Albornoz; Esther Hauk; We Thank Sami Berlinski; Benjamin J. Cohen; Matt Cole; Robert Elliott; Juan Carlos Hallak; Toby Kendall; Hannes Mueller; Gerard Padró I Miquel; Sevi Rodríguez Mora; Martín Rossi; Jaydeep Roy |
| Contributors: | The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
| Source: | http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/gep/documents/seminars/2012/facundo-albornoz.pdf. |
| Publication Year: | 2011 |
| Collection: | CiteSeerX |
| Description: | We use different variations of the canonical bargaining model of civil war to illustrate why a potential alliance with a third (foreign) party that affects the probability of winning the conflict can trigger or prolong an already existing civil war. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potentially intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates. These results withstand several robustness checks and, overall, show that foreign influence is a sizable driver of conflict around the world. |
| Document Type: | text |
| File Description: | application/pdf |
| Language: | English |
| Relation: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.226.3624 |
| Availability: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.226.3624; http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/gep/documents/seminars/2012/facundo-albornoz.pdf |
| Rights: | Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
| Accession Number: | edsbas.8FC46868 |
| Database: | BASE |