| Title: |
Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area |
| Authors: |
Caldas-Alvarez, Alberto; Augenstein, Markus; Ayzel, Georgy; Barfus, Klemens; Cherian, Ribu; Dillenardt, Lisa; Fauer, Felix; Feldmann, Hendrik; Heistermann, Maik; Karwat, Alexia; Kaspar, Frank; Kreibich, Heidi; Lucio-Eceiza, Etor Emanuel; Meredith, Edmund P.; Mohr, Susanna; Niermann, Deborah; Pfahl, Stephan; Ruff, Florian; Rust, Henning W.; Schoppa, Lukas; Schwitalla, Thomas; Steidl, Stella; Thieken, Annegret H.; Tradowsky, Jordis S.; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Quaas, Johannes |
| Source: |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 22 (11), 3701–3724 ; ISSN: 1684-9981 |
| Publisher Information: |
European Geosciences Union |
| Publication Year: |
2022 |
| Collection: |
KITopen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technologie) |
| Subject Terms: |
ddc:550; Earth sciences; info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550 |
| Description: |
Extreme precipitation is a weather phenomenon with tremendous damaging potential for property and human life. As the intensity and frequency of such events is projected to increase in a warming climate, there is an urgent need to advance the existing knowledge on extreme precipitation processes, statistics and impacts across scales. To this end, a working group within the Germany-based project, ClimXtreme, has been established to carry out multidisciplinary analyses of high-impact events. In this work, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event (HPE) affecting the Berlin metropolitan region (Germany), from the meteorological, impacts and climate perspectives, including climate change attribution. Our analysis showed that this event occurred under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough over western Europe and two shortwave surface lows over Britain and Poland (Rasmund and Rasmund II), inducing relevant low-level wind convergence along the German–Polish border. Over 11 000 convective cells were triggered, starting early morning 29 June, displacing northwards slowly under the influence of a weak tropospheric flow (10 m s$^{−1}$ at 500 hPa). The quasi-stationary situation led to totals up to 196 mm d$^{−1}$, making this event the 29 June most severe in the 1951–2021 climatology, ranked by means of a precipitation-based index. Regarding impacts, it incurred the largest insured losses in the period 2002 to 2017 (EUR 60 million) in the greater Berlin area. We provide further insights on flood attributes (inundation, depth, duration) based on a unique household-level survey data set. The major moisture source for this event was the Alpine–Slovenian region (63 % of identified sources) due to recycling of precipitation falling over that region 1 d earlier. Implementing three different generalised extreme value (GEV) models, we quantified the return periods for this case to be above 100 years for daily aggregated precipitation, and up to 100 and 10 years for 8 and 1 h ... |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
application/pdf |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
1684-9981 |
| Relation: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000886408400001; info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1684-9981; https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000152885; https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000152885/149685300; https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000152885 |
| DOI: |
10.5445/IR/1000152885 |
| Availability: |
https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000152885; https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000152885/149685300; https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000152885 |
| Rights: |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.de ; info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.9964C340 |
| Database: |
BASE |