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Chaotic Bayesian Inference: Strange Attractors as Risk Models for Black Swan Events

Title: Chaotic Bayesian Inference: Strange Attractors as Risk Models for Black Swan Events
Authors: Rust, Crystal
Publication Year: 2025
Collection: ArXiv.org (Cornell University Library)
Subject Terms: Risk Management; Econometrics; Statistical Finance; Other Statistics; es: 37N40; 37D45 (Primary) 62P20; 60G70; 91G70 (Secondary)
Description: We introduce a new risk modeling framework where chaotic attractors shape the geometry of Bayesian inference. By combining heavy-tailed priors with Lorenz and Rossler dynamics, the models naturally generate volatility clustering, fat tails, and extreme events. We compare two complementary approaches: Model A, which emphasizes geometric stability, and Model B, which highlights rare bursts using Fibonacci diagnostics. Together, they provide a dual perspective for systemic risk analysis, linking Black Swan theory to practical tools for stress testing and volatility monitoring. ; 13 pages, 5 figures. Includes supplementary baseline diagnostics
Document Type: text
Language: unknown
Relation: http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.08183
Availability: http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.08183
Accession Number: edsbas.9DED940C
Database: BASE