| Title: |
On Reporting Likelihood Ratio’s of Exhaustive and Non-Exhaustive Hypotheses about Rare Events in Criminal Cases |
| Authors: |
Mackor, Anne Ruth; Prakken, Henry |
| Contributors: |
van Leeuwen, Ludi; Verheij, Bart; Scheffers, Roos |
| Source: |
Mackor, A R & Prakken, H 2026, On Reporting Likelihood Ratio’s of Exhaustive and Non-Exhaustive Hypotheses about Rare Events in Criminal Cases. in L van Leeuwen, B Verheij & R Scheffers (eds), Proceedings of the JURIX 2025 AI4EVIR Workshop on AI for Evidential Reasoning . CEUR Workshop Proceedings, pp. 1-7, AI4EVIR: Workshop on AI for evidential reasoning, Turin, Italy, 09/12/2025. |
| Publisher Information: |
CEUR Workshop Proceedings |
| Publication Year: |
2026 |
| Collection: |
University of Groningen research database |
| Subject Terms: |
bayes; rare events; exhaustive hypotheses; criminal law; evidence evaluation |
| Description: |
This paper discusses how a Bayesian analysis in case of evidence of a rare event (so all its causes are also rare) can be presented in court in more or less misleading ways. Two case studies are used to hypothesise that a method that puts the rarity of both considered causes in the prior odds is less prone to committing probabilistic reasoning fallacies than a method that expresses one of these rarities in a likelihood ratio. Moreover, the second case study is used to argue that when experts report on two hypotheses that are not logically exhaustive, they should either explain why they can still be treated as exhaustive or explicitly warn that no posterior probabilities of the hypotheses can be derived. |
| Document Type: |
conference object |
| File Description: |
application/pdf |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/https://hdl.handle.net/11370/fc4198c9-73e9-4b66-a5a5-dc9d8030aa91; info:eu-repo/semantics/reference/hdl/https://hdl.handle.net/11370/45b1d1fd-c4f1-4ae8-abe5-67504f331655 |
| Availability: |
https://hdl.handle.net/11370/fc4198c9-73e9-4b66-a5a5-dc9d8030aa91; https://research.rug.nl/en/publications/fc4198c9-73e9-4b66-a5a5-dc9d8030aa91; https://pure.rug.nl/ws/files/1496575140/short1.pdf |
| Rights: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess ; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.9E3B7D6 |
| Database: |
BASE |