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Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Title: Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors: Bryazka, D; Reitsma, MB; Abate, YH; Abd Al Magied, AHA; Abdelkader, A; Abdollahi, A; Abdoun, M; Abdulkader, RS; Abeldaño Zuñiga, RA; Abhilash, ES; Abiodun, OO; Abiodun, O; Aboagye, RG; Abreu, LG; Abtahi, D; Abualruz, H; Abubakar, B; Abu-Rmeileh, NME; Aburuz, S; Abu-Zaid, A; Adane, MM; Adebiyi, AO; Adegboye, OA; Adekanmbi, V; Adewuyi, HO; Adnani, QES; Adzigbli, LA; Afaghi, S; Afolabi, AA; Afzal, MS; Afzal, S; Agodi, A; Agyemang-Duah, W; Ahinkorah, BO; Ahlstrom, AJ; Ahmad, A; Ahmad, D; Ahmad, MM; Ahmad, S; Ahmadi, A; Ahmed, A; Ahmed, H; Ahmed, MB; Ahmed, S; Ajami, M; Akkaif, MA; Akter, E; Al Awaidy, S; Al Hasan, SM; Al-Ajlouni, Y; Al-Aly, Z; Alam, K; Alam, Z; Aldhaleei, WA; Algammal, AM; Al-Gheethi, AAS; Alhabib, KF; Alhalaiqa, FN; Al-Hanawi, MK; Ali, A; Ali, MU; Ali, R; Ali, SS; Ali, W; Alif, SM; Aljunid, SM; Alla, F; Allebeck, P; Almahmeed, W; Al-Marwani, S; Al-Maweri, S; Alomari, MA; Alqahtani, JS; Alqutaibi, AY; Al-Raddadi, RMM; Alrousan, SM; Alsakarneh, S; Alshahrani, NZ; Altaany, Z; Altaf, A; Alvis-Guzman, N; Al-Wardat, M; Al-Worafi, YM; Aly, H; Aly, S; Alyahya, MSI; Alzoubi, KH; Al-Zyoud, WA; Amani, R; Amin, TT; Amiri, S; Amu, H; Amul, GGH; Amusa, GA; Anand, T; Anderlini, D; Anderson, DB; Anderson, JA; Andrei, CL; Andrei, T; Ansari, MT; Anuoluwa, IA; Anvari, S; Anwar, SL; Anyasodor, AE; Arabloo, J; Arafa, EA; Aravkin, AY; Areda, D; Aregawi, BB; Aremu, O; Artamonov, AA; Asgedom, AA; Asghari-Jafarabadi, M; Ashemo, MY; Ashraf, T; Astell-Burt, T; Athari, SS; Atorkey, P; Atreya, A; Aujayeb, A; Awotidebe, AW; Ayano, G; Aychiluhm, SB; Azadnajafabad, S; Azzam, AY; Babu, GR; Bahrami Taghanaki, P; Bahramian, S; Bai, R; Bakkannavar, SM; Balakrishnan, S; Bam, K; Banach, M; Bandyopadhyay, S; Baran, MF; Barchitta, M; Bardhan, M; Barker-Collo, SL; Barrow, A; Bashiru, HA; Basiru, A; Bastan, M-M; Basu, S; Batra, K; Bayati, M; Behnoush, AH; Bell, SL; Belo, L; Beneke, AA; Bennett, DA; Bensenor, IM; Beran, A; Bermudez, ANC; Beyene, HB; Bhagat, DS; Bhagavathula, AS; Bhala, N; Bhardwaj, N; 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Source: e744 ; e729
Publisher Information: Elsevier BV
Publication Year: 2024
Collection: Imperial College London: Spiral
Description: Background Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. Methods In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. Findings Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, ...
Document Type: article in journal/newspaper
Language: English
Relation: The Lancet Public Health; http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/115034
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00166-x
Availability: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/115034; https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00166-x
Rights: © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. ; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Accession Number: edsbas.A0060693
Database: BASE