| Title: |
Absolute Risk of Oropharyngeal Cancer After an HPV16-E6 Serology Test and Potential Implications for Screening: Results From the Human Papillomavirus Cancer Cohort Consortium |
| Authors: |
Robbins, HA; Ferreiro-Iglesias, A; Waterboer, T; Brenner, N; Nygard, M; Bender, N; Schroeder, L; Hildesheim, A; Pawlita, M; D'souza, G; Visvanathan, K; Langseth, H; Schlecht, NF; Tinker, LF; Agalliu, I; Wassertheil-Smoller, S; Ness-Jensen, E; Hveem, K; Grioni, S; Kaaks, R; Sánchez, MJ; Weiderpass, E; Giles, GG; Milne, RL; Cai, Q; Blot, WJ; Zheng, W; Weinstein, SJ; Albanes, D; Huang, WY; Freedman, ND; Kreimer, AR; Johansson, M; Brennan, P |
| Publisher Information: |
American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) |
| Publication Year: |
2022 |
| Collection: |
The University of Melbourne: Digital Repository |
| Description: |
PURPOSE: Seropositivity for the HPV16-E6 oncoprotein is a promising marker for early detection of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), but the absolute risk of OPC after a positive or negative test is unknown. METHODS: We constructed an OPC risk prediction model that integrates (1) relative odds of OPC for HPV16-E6 serostatus and cigarette smoking from the human papillomavirus (HPV) Cancer Cohort Consortium (HPVC3), (2) US population risk factor data from the National Health Interview Survey, and (3) US sex-specific population rates of OPC and mortality. RESULTS: The nine HPVC3 cohorts included 365 participants with OPC with up to 10 years between blood draw and diagnosis and 5,794 controls. The estimated 10-year OPC risk for HPV16-E6 seropositive males at age 50 years was 17.4% (95% CI, 12.4 to 28.6) and at age 60 years was 27.1% (95% CI, 19.2 to 45.4). Corresponding 5-year risk estimates were 7.3% and 14.4%, respectively. For HPV16-E6 seropositive females, 10-year risk estimates were 3.6% (95% CI, 2.5 to 5.9) at age 50 years and 5.5% (95% CI, 3.8 to 9.2) at age 60 years and 5-year risk estimates were 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 30 years, after a seropositive result at age 50 years, an estimated 49.9% of males and 13.3% of females would develop OPC. By contrast, 10-year risks among HPV16-E6 seronegative people were very low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.25% depending on age, sex, and smoking status. CONCLUSION: We estimate that a substantial proportion of HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals will develop OPC, with 10-year risks of 17%-27% for males and 4%-6% for females age 50-60 years in the United States. This high level of risk may warrant periodic, minimally invasive surveillance after a positive HPV16-E6 serology test, particularly for males in high-incidence regions. However, an appropriate clinical protocol for surveillance remains to be established. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
0732-183X |
| Relation: |
NHMRC/209057; https://hdl.handle.net/11343/320409 |
| Availability: |
https://hdl.handle.net/11343/320409 |
| Rights: |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 ; CC BY-NC-ND |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.A12997F4 |
| Database: |
BASE |