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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Title:	Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Authors:	Murray CJL; Callender CSKH; Kulikoff XR; Srinivasan V; Abate D; Abate KH; Abay SM; Abbasi N; Abbastabar H; Abdela J; Abdelalim A; Abdel-Rahman O; Abdi A; Abdoli N; Abdollahpour I; Abdulkader RS; Abebe HT; Abebe M; Abebe Z; Abebo TA; Abejie AN; Aboyans V; Abraha HN; Abreu DMX; Abrham AR; Abu-Raddad LJ; Abu-Rmeileh NME; Accrombessi MMK; Acharya P; Adamu AA; Adebayo OM; Adedeji IA; Adekanmbi V; Adetokunboh OO; Adhena BM; Adhikari TB; Adib MG; Adou AK; Adsuar JC; Afarideh M; Afshin A; Agarwal G; Agesa KM; Aghayan SA; Agrawal S; Ahmadi A; Ahmadi M; Ahmed MB; Ahmed S; Aichour AN; Aichour I; Aichour MTE; Akanda AS; Akbari ME; Akibu M; Akinyemi RO; Akinyemiju T; Akseer N; Alahdab F; Al-Aly Z; Alam K; Alebel A; Aleman AV; Alene KA; Al-Eyadhy A; Ali R; Alijanzadeh M; Alizadeh-Navaei R; Aljunid SM; Alkerwi A; Alla F; Allebeck P; Almasi A; Alonso J; Al-Raddadi RM; Alsharif U; Altirkawi K; Alvis-Guzman N; Amare AT; Ammar W; Anber NH; Andrei CL; Androudi S; Animut MD; Ansari H; Ansha MG; Antonio CAT; Appiah SCY; Aremu O; Areri HA; Arian N; Ärnlöv J; Artaman A; Aryal KK; Asayesh H; Asfaw ET; Asgedom SW; Assadi R; Atey TMM; Atique S; Atteraya MS; Ausloos M; Avokpaho EFGA; Awasthi A; Ayala Quintanilla BP; Ayele Y; Ayer R; Ayuk TB; Azzopardi PS; Babalola TK; Babazadeh A; Badali H; Badawi A; Bali AG; Banach M; Barker-Collo SL; Bärnighausen TW; Barrero LH; Basaleem H; Bassat Q; Basu A; Baune BT; Baynes HW; Beghi E; Behzadifar M; Bekele BB; Belachew AB; Belay AG; Belay E; Belay SA; Belay YA; Bell ML; Bello AK; Bennett DA; Bensenor IM; Bergeron G; Berhane A; Berman AE; Bernabe E; Bernstein RS; Bertolacci GJ; Beuran M; Bhattarai S; Bhaumik S; Bhutta ZA; Biadgo B; Bijani A; Bikbov B; Bililign N; Bin Sayeed MS; Birlik SM; Birungi C; Biswas T; Bizuneh H; Bleyer A; Basara BB; Bosetti C; Boufous S; Brady OJ; Bragazzi NL; Brainin M; Brazinova A; Breitborde NJK; Brenner H; Brewer JD; Briant PS; Britton G; Burstein R; Busse R; Butt ZA; Cahuana-Hurtado L; Campos-Nonato IR; Campuzano Rincon JC; Cano J; Car M; Cárdenas R; Carrero JJ; Carvalho F; Castañeda-Orjuela CA; Castillo Rivas J; Castro F; Catalá-López F; Çavlin A; Cerin E; Chalek J; Chang HY; Chang JC; Chattopadhyay A; Chaturvedi P; Chiang PP; Chin KL; Chisumpa VH; Chitheer A; Choi JJ; Chowdhury R; Christopher DJ; Cicuttini FM; Ciobanu LG; Cirillo M; Claro RM; Collado-Mateo D; Constantin MM; Conti S; Cooper C; Cooper LT; Cornaby L; Cortesi PA; Cortinovis M; Costa M; Cromwell E; Crowe CS; Cukelj P; Cunningham M; Daba AK; Dachew BA; Dandona L; Dandona R; Dargan PI; Daryani A; Das Gupta R; Das Neves J; Dasa TT; Dash AP; Weaver ND; Davitoiu DV; Davletov K; De Leo D; De Neve JW; Degefa MG; Degenhardt L; Degfie TT; Deiparine S; Demoz GT; Demtsu B; Denova-Gutiérrez E; Deribe K; Dervenis N; Des Jarlais DC; Dessie GA; Dharmaratne SD; Dhimal M; Dicker D; Ding EL; Dinsa GD; Djalalinia S; Do HP; Dokova K; Doku DT; Dolan KA; Doyle KE; Driscoll TR; Dubey M; Dubljanin E; Duken EE; Duraes AR; Ebrahimpour S; Edvardsson D; El Bcheraoui C; El-Khatib Z; Elyazar IR; Enayati A; Endries AY; Ermakov SP; Eshrati B; Eskandarieh S; Esmaeili R; Esteghamati A; Esteghamati S; Estep K; Fakhim H; Farag T; Faramarzi M; Fareed M; Farinha CSES; Faro A; Farvid MS; Farzadfar F; Farzaei MH; Fay KA; Fazeli MS; Feigin VL; Feigl AB; Feizy F; Fenny AP; Fentahun N; Fereshtehnejad SM; Fernandes E; Feyissa GT; Filip I; Finegold S; Fischer F; Flor LS; Foigt NA; Foreman KJ; Fornari C; Fürst T; Fukumoto T; Fuller JE; Fullman N; Gakidou E; Gallus S; Gamkrelidze A; Ganji M; Gankpe FG; Garcia GM; Garcia-Gordillo MÁ; Gebre AK; Gebre T; Gebregergs GB; Gebrehiwot TT; Gebremedhin AT; Gelano TF; Gelaw YA; Geleijnse JM; Genova-Maleras R; Gething P; Gezae KE; Ghadami MR; Ghadimi R; Ghadiri K; Ghasemi Falavarjani K; Ghasemi-Kasman M; Ghiasvand H; Ghimire M; Ghoshal AG; Gill PS; Gill TK; Giussani G; Gnedovskaya EV; Goli S; Gomez RS; Gómez-Dantés H; Gona PN; Goodridge A; Gopalani SV; Goulart AC; Goulart BNG; Grada A; Grosso G; Gugnani HCC; Guo J; Guo Y; Gupta PC; Gupta R; Gupta T; Haagsma JA; Hachinski V; Hafezi-Nejad N; Hagos TB; Hailegiyorgis TT; Hailu GB; Haj-Mirzaian A; Hamadeh RR; Hamidi S; Handal AJ; Hankey GJ; Hao Y; Harb HL; Haririan H; Haro JM; Hasan M; Hassankhani H; Hassen HY; Havmoeller R; Hay SI; He Y; Hedayatizadeh-Omran A; Hegazy MI; Heibati B; Heidari B; Hendrie D; Henok A; Henry NJ; Herteliu C; Heydarpour F; Hibstu DT; Hole MK; Homaie Rad E; Hoogar P; Hosgood HD; Hosseini SM; Hosseini Chavoshi MM; Hosseinzadeh M; Hostiuc M; Hostiuc S; Hsairi M; Hsiao T; Hu G; Huang JJ; Iburg KM; Igumbor EU; Ikeda CT; Ilesanmi OS; Iqbal U; Irenso AA; Irvani SSN; Isehunwa OO; Islam SMS; Jahangiry L; Jahanmehr N; Jain SK; Jakovljevic M; Jalu MT; James SL; Jassal SK; Javanbakht M; Jayatilleke AU; Jeemon P; Jha RP; Jha V; Ji JS; Jonas JB; Jozwiak JJ; Jungari SB; Jürisson M; Kabir Z; Kadel R; Kahsay A; Kalani R; Kapil U; Karami M; Matin BK; Karch A; Karema C; Karimi SM; Kasaeian A; Kassa DH; Kassa GM; Kassa TD; Kassa ZY; Kassebaum NJ; Kastor A; Katikireddi SV; Kaul A; Kawakami N; Karyani AK; Kebede S; Keiyoro PN; Kemp GR; Kengne AP; Keren A; Kereselidze M; Khader YS; Khafaie MA; Khajavi A; Khalid N; Khalil IA; Khan EA; Khan MS; Khang YH; Khanna T; Khater MM; Khatony A; Khazaeipour Z; Khazaie H; Khoja AT; Khosravi A; Khosravi MH; Kibret GD; Kidanemariam ZT; Kiirithio DN; Kilgore PE; Kim D; Kim JY; Kim YE; Kim YJ; Kimokoti RW; Kinfu Y; Kinra S; Kisa A; Kivimäki M; Kochhar S; Kokubo Y; Kolola T; Kopec JA; Kosek MN; Kosen S; Koul PA; Koyanagi A; Krishan K; Krishnaswami S; Krohn KJ; Defo BK; Bicer BK; Kumar GA; Kumar M; Kumar P; Kumsa FA; Kutz MJ; Lad SD; Lafranconi A; Lal DK; Lalloo R; Lam H; Lami FH; Lang JJ; Lanksy S; Lansingh VC; Laryea DO; Lassi ZS; Latifi A; Laxmaiah A; Lazarus JV; Lee JB; Lee PH; Leigh J; Leshargie CT; Leta S; Levi M; Li S; Li X; Li Y; Liang J; Liang X; Liben ML; Lim LL; Limenih MA; Linn S; Liu S; Lorkowski S; Lotufo PA; Lozano R; Lunevicius R; Mabika CM; Macarayan ERK; Mackay MT; Madotto F; Mahmood TAE; Mahotra NB; Majdan M; Majdzadeh R; Majeed A; Malekzadeh R; Malik MA; Mamun AA; Manamo WA; Manda AL; Mangalam S; Mansournia MA; Mantovani LG; Mapoma CC; Marami D; Maravilla JC; Marcenes W; Marina S; Martins-Melo FR; März W; Marzan MB; Mashamba-Thompson TP; Masiye F; Mason-Jones AJ; Massenburg BB; Mathur MR; Maulik PK; Mazidi M; McGrath JJ; Mehata S; Mehendale SM; Mehndiratta MM; Mehrotra R; Mehrzadi S; Mehta KM; Mehta V; Mekonnen TC; Meles HG; Meles KG; Melese A; Melku M; Memiah PTN; Memish ZA; Mendoza W; Mengesha MM; Mengistu DT; Mengistu G; Mensah GA; Mereta ST; Meretoja A; Meretoja TJ; Mestrovic T; Mezgebe HB; Miangotar Y; Miazgowski B; Miazgowski T; Miller TR; Miller-Petrie MK; Mini GK; Mirabi P; Mirica A; Mirrakhimov EM; Misganaw AT; Moazen B; Mohammad KA; Mohammadi M; Mohammadifard N; Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M; Mohammed MA; Mohammed S; Mokdad AH; Mola GD; Molokhia M; Monasta L; Montañez JC; Moradi G; Moradi M; Moradi-Lakeh M; Moradinazar M; Moraga P; Morgado-Da-Costa J; Mori R; Morrison SD; Mosapour A; Moschos MM; Mousavi SM; Muche AA; Muchie KF; Mueller UO; Mukhopadhyay S; Muller K; Murphy TB; Murthy GVS; Musa J; Musa KI; Mustafa G; Muthupandian S; Nachega JB; Nagel G; Naghavi M; Naheed A; Nahvijou A; Naik G; Naik P; Najafi F; Naldi L; Nangia V; Nansseu JR; Nascimento BR; Nawaz H; Ncama BP; Neamati N; Negoi I; Negoi RI; Neupane S; Newton CRJ; Ngalesoni FN; Ngunjiri JW; Nguyen G; Nguyen LH; Nguyen TH; Ningrum DNA; Nirayo YL; Nisar MI; Nixon MR; Nomura S; Noroozi M; Noubiap JJ; Nouri HR; Shiadeh MN; Nowroozi MR; Nyandwi A; Nyasulu PS; Odell CM; Ofori-Asenso R; Ogah OS; Ogbo FA; Oh IH; Okoro A; Oladimeji O; Olagunju AT; Olagunju TO; Olivares PR; Olusanya BO; Olusanya JO; Ong SK; Ortiz A; Osgood-Zimmerman A; Ota E; Otieno BA; Otstavnov SS; Owolabi MO; Oyekale AS; P A M; Pakhale S; Pakhare AP; Pana A; Panda BK; Panda-Jonas S; Pandey AR; Park EK; Parsian H; Patel S; Patil ST; Patle A; Patton GC; Paturi VR; Paudel D; Pedroso MM; Peprah EK; Pereira DM; Perico N; Pesudovs K; Petri WA; Petzold M; Pierce M; Pigott DM; Pillay JD; Pirsaheb M; Polanczyk GV; Postma MJ; Pourmalek F; Pourshams A; Poustchi H; Prakash S; Prasad N; Purcell CA; Purwar MB; Qorbani M; Quansah R; Radfar A; Rafay A; Rafiei A; Rahim F; Rahimi-Movaghar A; Rahimi-Movaghar V; Rahman M; Rahman MS; Rahman MHU; Rahman MA; Rahman SU; Rai RK; Rajati F; Rajsic S; Ram U; Ranabhat CL; Ranjan P; Rawaf DL; Rawaf S; Ray SE; Razo-García C; Reiner RC; Reis C; Remuzzi G; Renzaho AMN; Resnikoff S; Rezaei S; Rezaeian S; Rezai MS; Riahi SM; Rios-Blancas MJ; Roba KT; Roberts NLS; Roever L; Ronfani L; Roshandel G; Rostami A; Rubagotti E; Ruhago GM; Sabde YD; Sachdev PS; Saddik B; Saeedi Moghaddam S; Safari H; Safari Y; Safari-Faramani R; Safdarian M; Safi S; Safiri S; Sagar R; Sahebkar A; Sahraian MA; Sajadi HS; Salahshoor M; Salam N; Salama JS; Salamati P; Saldanha RF; Saleem Z; Salimi Y; Salimzadeh H; Salomon JA; Salvi SS; Salz I; Sambala EZ; Samy AM; Sanabria J; Sanchez-Niño MD; Santos IS; Santric Milicevic MM; Sao Jose BP; Sardana M; Sarker AR; Sarmiento-Suárez R; Saroshe S; Sarrafzadegan N; Sartorius B; Sarvi S; Sathian B; Satpathy M; Sawant AR; Sawhney M; Saxena S; Schaeffner E; Schelonka K; Schneider IJC; Schwebel DC; Schwendicke F; Seedat S; Sekerija M; Sepanlou SG; Serván-Mori E; Shabaninejad H; Shackelford KA; Shafieesabet A; Shaheen AA; Shaikh MA; Shakir RA; Shams-Beyranvand M; Shamsi M; Shamsizadeh M; Sharafi H; Sharafi K; Sharif M; Sharif-Alhoseini M; Sharma J; Sharma R; She J; Sheikh A; Shi P; Shibuya K; Shigematsu M; Shiri R; Shirkoohi R; Shiue I; Shokraneh F; Shukla SR; Si S; Siabani S; Sibai AM; Siddiqi TJ; Sigfusdottir ID; Sigurvinsdottir R; Silpakit N; Silva DAS; Silva JP; Silveira DGA; Singam NSV; Singh JA; Singh NP; Singh V; Sinha DN; Sliwa K; Soares Filho AM; Sobaih BH; Sobhani S; Soofi M; Soriano JB; Soyiri IN; Sreeramareddy CT; Starodubov VI; Steiner C; Stewart LG; Stokes MA; Strong M; Subart ML; Sufiyan MB; Sulo G; Sunguya BF; Sur PJ; Sutradhar I; Sykes BL; Sylaja PN; Sylte DO; Szoeke CEI; Tabarés-Seisdedos R; Tabb KM; Tadakamadla SK; Tandon N; Tassew AA; Tassew SG; Taveira N; Tawye NY; Tehrani-Banihashemi A; Tekalign TG; Tekle MG; Temsah MH; Terkawi AS; Teshale MY; Tessema B; Teweldemedhin M; Thakur JS; Thankappan KR; Thirunavukkarasu S; Thomas N; Thomson AJ; Tilahun B; To QG; Tonelli M; Topor-Madry R; Torre AE; Tortajada-Girbés M; Tovani-Palone MR; Toyoshima H; Tran BX; Tran KB; Tripathy SP; Truelsen TC; Truong NT; Tsadik AG; Tsegay A; Tsilimparis N; Tudor Car L; Ukwaja KN; Ullah I; Usman MS; Uthman OA; Uzun SB; Vaduganathan M; Vaezi A; Vaidya G; Valdez PR; Varavikova E; Varughese S; Vasankari TJ; Vasconcelos AMN; Venketasubramanian N; Villafaina S; Violante FS; Vladimirov SK; Vlassov V; Vollset SE; Vos T; Vosoughi K; Vujcic IS; Wagnew FS; Waheed Y; Walson JL; Wang Y; Wang YP; Weiderpass E; Weintraub RG; Weldegwergs KG; Werdecker A; Westerman R; Whiteford H; Widecka J; Widecka K; Wijeratne T; Winkler AS; Wiysonge CS; Wolfe CDA; Wu S; Wyper GMA; Xu G; Yamada T; Yano Y; Yaseri M; Yasin YJ; Ye P; Yentür GK; Yeshaneh A; Yimer EM; Yip P; Yisma E; Yonemoto N; Yoon SJ; Yotebieng M; Younis MZ; Yousefifard M; Yu C; Zadnik V; Zaidi Z; Zaman SB; Zamani M; Zare Z; Zeleke MM; Zenebe ZM; Zerfu TA; Zhang X; Zhao XJ; Zhou M; Zhu J; Zimsen SRM; Zodpey S; Zoeckler L; Lopez AD; Lim SS.
Contributors:	Murray, Cjl; Callender, Cskh; Kulikoff, Xr; Srinivasan, V; Abate, D; Abate, Kh; Abay, Sm; Abbasi, N; Abbastabar, H; Abdela, J; Abdelalim, A; Abdel-Rahman, O; Abdi, A; Abdoli, N; Abdollahpour, I; Abdulkader, R; Abebe, Ht; Abebe, M; Abebe, Z; Abebo, Ta; Abejie, An; Aboyans, V; Abraha, Hn; Abreu, Dmx; Abrham, Ar; Abu-Raddad, Lj; Abu-Rmeileh, Nme; Accrombessi, Mmk; Acharya, P; Adamu, Aa; Adebayo, Om; Adedeji, Ia; Adekanmbi, V; Adetokunboh, Oo; Adhena, Bm; Adhikari, Tb; Adib, Mg; Adou, Ak; Adsuar, Jc; Afarideh, M; Afshin, A; Agarwal, G; Agesa, Km; Aghayan, Sa; Agrawal, S; Ahmadi, A; Ahmadi, M; Ahmed, Mb; Ahmed, S; Aichour, An; Aichour, I; Aichour, Mte; Akanda, A; Akbari, Me; Akibu, M; Akinyemi, Ro; Akinyemiju, T; Akseer, N; Alahdab, F; Al-Aly, Z; Alam, K; Alebel, A; Aleman, Av; Alene, Ka; Al-Eyadhy, A; Ali, R; Alijanzadeh, M; Alizadeh-Navaei, R; Aljunid, Sm; Alkerwi, A; Alla, F; Allebeck, P; Almasi, A; Alonso, J; Al-Raddadi, Rm; Alsharif, U; Altirkawi, K; Alvis-Guzman, N; Amare, At; Ammar, W; Anber, Nh; Andrei, Cl; Androudi, S; Animut, Md; Ansari, H; Ansha, Mg; Antonio, Cat; Appiah, Scy; Aremu, O; Areri, Ha; Arian, N; Ärnlöv, J; Artaman, A; Aryal, Kk; Asayesh, H; Asfaw, Et; Asgedom, Sw; Assadi, R; Atey, Tmm; Atique, S
Publication Year:	2018
Subject Terms:	GBD; population; fertility; demo
Description:	BACKGROUND: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, .
Document Type:	article in journal/newspaper
Language:	English
Relation:	http://hdl.handle.net/11588/731831
Availability:	http://hdl.handle.net/11588/731831
Rights:	undefined
Accession Number:	edsbas.A706AD8
Database:	BASE