| Title: |
Empirically grounded projections of shifts in 24-hour movement behaviours under climate change–driven warming |
| Authors: |
Ferguson, Ty; Maher, Carol; Curtis, Rachel; Fraysse, Francois; Lechat, Bastien; Mavoa, Suzanne; Chastin, Sebastien |
| Source: |
Ferguson, T, Maher, C, Curtis, R, Fraysse, F, Lechat, B, Mavoa, S & Chastin, S 2026 'Empirically grounded projections of shifts in 24-hour movement behaviours under climate change–driven warming' medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.02.08.26345870 |
| Publisher Information: |
medRxiv |
| Publication Year: |
2026 |
| Subject Terms: |
climate change; physical activity; sleep; sedentary behaviour; mvpa; precipitation; temperature; global health; /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action; name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| Description: |
Introduction Climate change is expected to alter daily patterns of sleep, sedentary behaviour and physical activity, yet empirically grounded projections across the full 24-hour movement spectrum are lacking. This study estimated how projected future warming may alter 24-hour movement behaviour patterns in adults. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation framework estimated temperature-dependent distributions of daily movement behaviour duration using data from 368 adults in the Annual Rhythms in Adults (ARIA) study in Adelaide, Australia. A total of 85,182 valid person-days were linked to daily temperature data to determine empirical temperature-behaviour relationships. The resulting distributions were used to simulate behaviour under five Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warming scenarios (+1.5°C to +4.4°C above pre-industrial levels) across a full calendar year relative to current-climate conditions (+0.99°C above pre-industrial levels). Results Simulations projected small but consistent behavioural shifts with warming. Annual median increased for MVPA (+49min to +4h 22min per person) and LPA (+3h to +13h 1min per person), while sleep declined (–5h 29min to –23h 19min per person). Physical activity gains were concentrated in cooler months, whereas sleep losses persisted year-round. Changes in sedentary behaviour were minimal and inconsistent. Discussion Rising temperatures may modestly increase year-long physical activity but reduce sleep duration, in a temperate-zone Mediterranean climate geography producing meaningful cumulative health implications. However, these might be confounded by the effect of other meteorological changes such as rainfall and humidity, which warrant further investigation. |
| Document Type: |
report |
| File Description: |
application/pdf |
| Language: |
English |
| DOI: |
10.64898/2026.02.08.26345870 |
| Availability: |
https://researchonline.gcu.ac.uk/en/publications/3d9e42d9-73f8-4999-b9c5-7c9f2e5d8c26; https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.02.08.26345870; https://researchonline.gcu.ac.uk/ws/files/109301282/109252555.pdf |
| Rights: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess ; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.AE230495 |
| Database: |
BASE |