| Contributors: |
Ng, M.; Gakidou, E.; Lo, J.; Abate, Y. H.; Abbafati, C.; Abbas, N.; Abbasian, M.; Abd Elhafeez, S.; Abdel-Rahman, W. M.; Abd-Elsalam, S.; Abdollahi, A.; Abdoun, M.; Abdulah, D. M.; Abdulkader, R. S.; Abdullahi, A.; Abedi, A.; Abeywickrama, H. M.; Abie, A.; Aboagye, R. G.; Abohashem, S.; Abtahi, D.; Abualruz, H.; Abubakar, B.; Abu Farha, R. K.; Abukhadijah, H. J.; Abu-Rmeileh, N. M.; Aburuz, S.; Abu-Zaid, A.; Adams, L. C.; Adane, M. M.; Addo, I. Y.; Adedokun, K. A.; Adegoke, N. A.; Adepoju, A. V. V.; Adesola, R. O.; Adeyeoluwa, T. E.; Adiga, U.; Adnani, Q. E. S.; Afaghi, S.; Afzal, S.; Afzal, M. S.; Agampodi, T. C.; Aghamiri, S.; Agostinis Sobrinho, C.; Agyemang-Duah, W.; Ahlstrom, A. J.; Ahmad, D.; Ahmad, S.; Ahmad, A.; Ahmad, M. M.; Ahmad, F.; Ahmad, N.; Ahmed, H.; Ahmed, M. B.; Ahmed, A.; Ahmed, M. S.; Ahmed, S. A.; Ajami, M.; Akhtar, S.; Akkaif, M. A.; Akrami, A. E.; Alalwan, T. A.; Al-Aly, Z.; Alam, K.; Al-amer, R. M.; Alansari, A.; Al-Ashwal, F. Y.; Albashtawy, M.; Aldhaleei, W. A.; Alemayehu, B. A.; Algammal, A. M.; Alhabib, K. F.; Al Hamad, H.; Al Hasan, S. M.; Alhuwail, D.; Ali, R.; Ali, A.; Ali, W.; Ali, M. U.; Alif, S. M.; Al-Jabi, S. W.; Aljunid, S. M.; Alkhatib, A.; Al-Marwani, S.; Alomari, M. A.; Alqahtani, S. A.; Al-Raddadi, R. M. M.; Alrawashdeh, A.; Alrimawi, I.; Alrousan, S. M.; Alshahrani, N. Z.; Al Ta'Ani, O.; Al Ta'Ani, Z.; Altaany, Z.; Altaf, A.; Al Thaher, Y.; Alvis-Guzman, N.; Al-Wardat, M.; Al-Worafi, Y. M. |
| Description: |
Background: Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories to 2050. Methods: Leveraging established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among individuals aged 25 years and older by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2050. Retrospective and current prevalence trends were derived based on both self-reported and measured anthropometric data extracted from 1350 unique sources, which include survey microdata and reports, as well as published literature. Specific adjustment was applied to correct for self-report bias. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models were used to synthesise data, leveraging both spatial and temporal correlation in epidemiological trends, to optimise the comparability of results across time and geographies. To generate forecast estimates, we used forecasts of the Socio-demographic Index and temporal correlation patterns presented as annualised rate of change to inform future trajectories. We considered a reference scenario assuming the continuation of historical trends. Findings: Rates of overweight and obesity increased at the global and regional levels, and in all nations, between 1990 and 2021. In 2021, an estimated 1·00 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·989–1·01) adult males and 1·11 billion (1·10–1·12) adult females had overweight and obesity. China had the largest population of adults with overweight and obesity (402 million [397–407] individuals), followed by India (180 million [167–194]) and the USA (172 million [169–174]). The highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed in countries in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, ... |