| Title: |
Forecasting the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Oman up to 2050: Mathematical modeling analyses. |
| Authors: |
Awad, SF; Al-Mawali, A; Al-Lawati, JA; Morsi, M; Critchley, JA; Abu-Raddad, LJ |
| Publisher Information: |
Wiley |
| Publication Year: |
2021 |
| Collection: |
St George's University of London: Repository |
| Description: |
AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An age-structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population-based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors. RESULTS: The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with 570,227 in 2050. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years changed from 8.3 in 2020 to 12.1 in 2050. Type 2 diabetes mellitus' share of Oman's national health expenditure grew by 36% between 2020 and 2050 (from 21.2 to 28.8%). Obesity explained 56.7% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases in 2020 and 71.4% in 2050, physical inactivity explained 4.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2050, whereas smoking accounted for |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
application/pdf; application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
2040-1124 |
| Relation: |
https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/112580/5/jdi.13452.pdf; https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/112580/1/DM_Oman_Manuscript-tracked.docx; https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/112580/3/Appendix-tracked.docx; Awad, SF; Al-Mawali, A; Al-Lawati, JA; Morsi, M; Critchley, JA; Abu-Raddad, LJ (2021) Forecasting the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Oman up to 2050: Mathematical modeling analyses. J Diabetes Investig, 12 (7). pp. 1162-1174. ISSN 2040-1124 https://doi.org/10.1111/jdi.13452 SGUL Authors: Critchley, Julia |
| Availability: |
https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/112580/; https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/112580/5/jdi.13452.pdf |
| Rights: |
cc_by_nc_nd_4 |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.B93FA90B |
| Database: |
BASE |