Monitoring the World Business Cycle*
| Title: | Monitoring the World Business Cycle* |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Maximo Camacho; Jaime Martinez-martin; Jel Codes E |
| Contributors: | The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
| Source: | http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2015/0228.pdf. |
| Publication Year: | 2015 |
| Collection: | CiteSeerX |
| Description: | We propose a Markov-switching dynamic factor model to construct an index of global business cycle conditions, to perform short-term forecasts of world GDP quarterly growth in real time and to compute real-time business cycle probabilities. To overcome the real-time forecasting challenges, the model accounts for mixed frequencies, for asynchronous data publication and for leading indicators. Our pseudo real-time results show that this approach provides reliable and timely inferences of the world quarterly growth and of the world state of the business cycle on a monthly basis. |
| Document Type: | text |
| File Description: | application/pdf |
| Language: | English |
| Relation: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.697.208; http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2015/0228.pdf |
| Availability: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.697.208; http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2015/0228.pdf |
| Rights: | Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
| Accession Number: | edsbas.BA393E01 |
| Database: | BASE |