| Title: |
Ozone stratospheric trends from regional Bayesian composite of ground-based partial columns |
| Authors: |
Mirallie, Louis; Maillard Barras, Eliane; Jonas, Caroline; Vigouroux, Corinne; van Malderen, Roeland; Petropavlovskikh, Irina; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Leblanc, Thierry; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Vadès, Antoine; Ruefenach, Rolf; Haefele, Alexander; Stober, Gunter; Effertz, Peter; Gröbner, Julian; Ancellet, Gérard; Cazorla, María; Duff, Petra; Frey, Matthias, M; Gill, Michael; Hannigan, James, W; Jones, Nicholas; Kivi, Rigel; Koehler, Raphael; Kois, Bogumil; Kollonige, Debra, E; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Mcconville, Glen; Mellqvist, Johan; Morris, Gary; Murata, Isao; Nagahama, Tomoo; Nedoluha, Gerald, E; Ogino, Shin-Ya; Querel, Richard; Stauffer, Ryan, M; Stremme, Wolfgang; Strong, Kimberly; Sussmann, Ralf; Thompson, Anne, M; Virolainen, Yana |
| Contributors: |
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss; Institute of Applied Physics Bern (IAP); Universität Bern = University of Bern = Université de Berne (UNIBE); Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR); Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB); Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique Bruxelles - Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (IRM); Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); University of Colorado Boulder -National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory Boulder (GML); NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); ATMOSPHERE - LATMOS; Laboratoire Atmosphères, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS); Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL); NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH); German Meteorological Service (DWD); Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC); Universidad San Francisco de Quito (USFQ); Department of Physics Toronto; University of Toronto; Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Spurengase und Fernerkundung (IMK-ASF); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology = Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT); Irish Meteorological Service (MET ÉIREANN); National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR); Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry Wollongong (CAC); University of Wollongong Australia; Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI); Alfred Wegener Institute Potsdam; Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI); Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association; Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC); ADNET Systems, Inc.; Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich (ULiège); Department of Space, Earth and Environment (SEE); Chalmers University of Technology Göteborg; Graduate School of Environmental Studies Tohoku University (GSES); Tohoku University Sendai; Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research Nagoya (ISEE); Nagoya University; United States Naval Research Laboratory (US NRL); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC); National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder (NIWA); Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM); University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC); University System of Maryland; St Petersburg State University (SPbU) |
| Source: |
https://hal.science/hal-05510209 ; 2026. |
| Publisher Information: |
CCSD |
| Publication Year: |
2026 |
| Collection: |
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
| Subject Terms: |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology |
| Description: |
International audience ; Large uncertainties and variability prevent the detection of statistically significant ozone trends from individual ground-based instruments in the lower stratosphere. Available merging studies are typically performed by latitude bands on satellite-based data records. This study derives correlation-based regional composites of ground-based time series towards reducing trends uncertainties.We address fundamental heterogeneities resulting from grouping individually homogenized ground-based datasets to enable robust merging. Uneven temporal and vertical resolutions of five ozone measurement techniques (Ozonesondes, FTIR, Dobson Umkehr, Lidar and Microwave radiometers) are handled by integrating monthly mean ozone profiles in two sets of four independent partial columns. Spatial heterogeneity is resolved by defining coherent regions using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis. Regional time series are merged by the BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) algorithm, adapted to consider propagated measurement uncertainties and the agreement between individual time series by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Trends for the 2000–2024 period are then estimated by Multiple Linear Regression using the LOTUS model.We compare BASIC with a conventional weighted mean. While the weighted mean fails to capture variability during periods of low instrument consensus, BASIC produces a more representative time series by robustly handling outliers. Accordingly, BASIC reduces average uncertainties of the trend estimates by 15.3 % relative to the weighted-mean approach. Our results confirm robust positive trends in the upper stratosphere and show predominantly negative significant regional trends in the middle and lower stratosphere. This study establishes a consolidated, global ground-based reference to be used for comparison with global satellite-based ozone trends |
| Document Type: |
report |
| Language: |
English |
| DOI: |
10.5194/egusphere-2026-113 |
| Availability: |
https://hal.science/hal-05510209; https://hal.science/hal-05510209v1/document; https://hal.science/hal-05510209v1/file/egusphere-2026-113.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-113 |
| Rights: |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ; info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.BF2519D4 |
| Database: |
BASE |