| Title: |
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 |
| Authors: |
Frank, Tahvi D.; Carter, Austin; Jahagirdar, Deepa; Biehl, Molly H.; Douwes-Schultz, Dirk; Larson, Samantha Leigh; Arora, Megha; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Steuben, Krista M.; Abbastabar, Hedayat; Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal; Abyu, Direslgne Misker; Adabi, Maryam; Adebayo, Oladimeji M.; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.; Ahmadi, Alireza; Ahmadi, Keivan; Ahmadian, Elham; Ahmadpour, Ehsan; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Akal, Chalachew Genet; Alahdab, Fares; Alam, Noore; Albertson, Samuel B.; Alemnew, Birhan Tamene T.; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Alipour, Vahid; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amini, Saeed; Anbari, Zohreh; Anber, Nahla Hamed; Anjomshoa, Mina; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Arabloo, Jalal; Aremu, Olatunde; Areri, Habtamu Abera; Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay; Ashagre, Alebachew Fasil; Asmelash, Daniel; Asrat, Anemaw A.; Avokpaho, Euripide F. G. A.; Awasthi, Ashish; Awoke, Nefsu; Ayanore, Martin Amogre; Azari, Samad; Badawi, Alaa; Bagherzadeh, Mojtaba; Banach, Maciej; Barac, Aleksandra; Barnighausen, Till Winfried; Basu, Sanjay; Bedi, Neeraj; Behzadifar, Masoud; Bekele, Bayu Begashaw; Belay, Saba Abraham; Belay, Yared Belete; Belayneh, Yaschilal Muche Muche; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bhat, Anusha Ganapati; Bhattacharyya, Krittika; Biadgo, Belete; Bijani, Ali; Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat; Bitew, Helen; Blinov, Andrew; Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw; Bojia, Hunduma Amensisa; Nagaraja, Sharath B. N. Burugina; Butt, Zahid A.; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Rincon, Julio Cesar Campuzano; Carvalho, Flix; Chattu, Vijay Kumar; Christopher, Devasahayam J.; Chu, Dinh-Toi; Crider, Raquel; Dahiru, Tukur; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Daryani, Ahmad; das Neves, Jose; De Neve, Jan-Walter; Degenhardt, Louisa; Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen; Demis, Asmamaw Bizuneh Bizuneh; Demissie, Dereje Bayissa; Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam; Deribe, Kebede; Des Jarlais, Don; Dhungana, Govinda Prasad; Diaz, Daniel; Djalalinia, Shirin; Huyen Phuc Do; Linh Phuong Doan; Duber, Herbert; Dubey, Manisha; Dubljanin, Eleonora; Duken, Eyasu Ejeta; Adema, Bereket Duko; Effiong, Andem; Eftekhari, Aziz; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; El-Jaafary, Shaimaa, I; El-Khatib, Ziad; Elsharkawy, Aisha; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Eskandarieh, Sharareh; Eyawo, Oghenowede; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fatima, Batool; Fentahun, Netsanet; Fernandes, Eduarda; Filip, Irina; Fischer, Florian; Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin; Foroutan, Masoud; Fukumoto, Takeshi; Fullman, Nancy; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L.; Gayesa, Reta Tsegaye; Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork; Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn; Gebreyohannes, Kelali Kalaye; Gedefaw, Getnet Azeze; Gelaw, Belayneh K.; Gesesew, Hailay Abrha; Geta, Birhanu; Gezae, Kebede Embaye; Ghadiri, Keyghobad; Ghashghaee, Ahmad; Ginindza, Themba T. G.; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Guimares, Rafael Alves; Haile, Michael Tamene; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin; Haj-Mirzaian, Arya; Hamidi, Samer; Handanagic, Senad; Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes; Hanfore, Lolemo Kelbiso; Hasanzadeh, Amir; Hassankhani, Hadi; Hassen, Hamid; Hay, Simon, I; Henok, Andualem; Chi Linh Hoang; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi; Hsairi, Mohamed; Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel; Idrisov, Bulat; Ikuta, Kevin S.; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Iwu, Chinwe Juliana; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; James, Spencer L.; Jenabi, Ensiyeh; Jha, Ravi Prakash; Jonas, Jost B.; Shushtari, Zahra Jorjoran; Kabir, Ali; Kabir, Zubair; Kadel, Rajendra; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassa, Belete; Kassa, Getachew Mullu; Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale; Kayode, Gbenga A.; Kebede, Mihiretu M.; Kefale, Adane Teshome; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif; Khalid, Nauman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Gulfaraz; Khan, Junaid; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatab, Khaled; Khazaei, Salman; Khoja, Abdullah T.; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A.; Kim, Yun Jin; Kisa, Adnan; Kisa, Sezer; Kochhar, Sonali; Komaki, Hamidreza; Koul, Parvaiz A.; Koyanagi, Ai; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Kumar, G. Anil; Kumar, Manasi; Kuupiel, Desmond; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lee, Jane Jean-Hee; Lenjebo, Tsegaye Lolaso; Leshargie, Cheru Tesema; Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King; Maddison, Emilie R.; Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahasha, Phetole Walter; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Manafi, Navid; Mapoma, Chabila Christopher; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio; Masaka, Anthony; Mayenga, Emmanuel Ngassa Laurent; Mehta, Varshil; Meles, Gebrekiros Gebremichael; Meles, Hagazi Gebre; Melese, Addisu; Melku, Mulugeta; Memiah, Peter T. N.; Memish, Ziad A.; Mena, Alemayehu Toma; Mendoza, Walter; Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese; Mengistu, Getnet; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Mestrovic, Tomislav; Miller, Ted R.; Moazen, Babak; Mohajer, Bahram; Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, Amjad; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammad, Yousef; Darwesh, Aso Mohammad; Mezerji, Naser Mohammad Gholi; Mohammadi, Moslem; Mohammadibakhsh, Roghayeh; Mohammadoo-Khorasani, Milad; Mohammed, Jemal Abdu; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mohebi, Farnam; Mokdad, Ali H.; Moodley, Yoshan; Moossavi, Maryam; Moradi, Ghobad; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moschos, Marilita M.; Mossie, Tilahun Belete; Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam; Muchie, Kindie Fentahun; Muluneh, Atalay Goshu; Muriithi, Moses K.; Mustafa, Ghulam; Muthupandian, Saravanan; Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman; Naik, Gurudatta; Najafi, Farid; Nazari, Javad; Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nixon, Molly R.; Nnaji, Chukwudi A.; Noroozi, Mehdi; Noubiap, Jean Jacques; Shiadeh, Malihe Nourollahpour; Obsa, Mohammed Suleiman; Odame, Emmanuel Ankrah; Ofori-Asenso, Richard; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Okoro, Anselm; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju; Olagunju, Andrew T.; Olagunju, Tinuke O.; Olum, Solomon; Asante, Kwaku Oppong; Oren, Eyal; Otstavnov, Stanislav S.; Mahesh, P. A.; Padubidri, Jagadish Rao; Pakhale, Smita; Pakpour, Amir H.; Patel, Sangram Kishor; Paulos, Kebreab; Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino; Peprah, Emmanuel K.; Piroozi, Bakhtiar; Pourshams, Akram; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rabiee, Mohammad; Rabiee, Navid; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rafiei, Alireza; Rahim, Fakher; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Rawaf, Salman; Reis, Cesar; Renjith, Vishnu; Reta, Melese Abate; Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh; Rios Gonazlez, Carlos Miguel; Roro, Elias E. M. Merdassa; Rostami, Ali; Rubino, Salvatore; Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi; Safari, Saeed; Sagar, Rajesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salem, Marwa R. Rashad; Salimi, Yahya; Salomon, Joshua A.; Sambala, Evanson Zondani; Samy, Abdallah M.; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Sawhney, Monika; Sayyah, Mehdi; Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba; Shabaninejad, Hosein; Shaheen, Amira A.; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shallo, Seifadin Ahmed; Shamsizadeh, Morteza; Sharifi, Hamid; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Jae Il; Shirkoohi, Reza; Santos Silva, Diego Augusto; Alves Silveira, Dayane Gabriele; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Sisay, Malede Mequanent M.; Sisay, Mekonnen; Sisay, Solomon; Smith, Amanda E.; Sokhan, Anton; Somayaji, Ranjani; Soshnikov, Sergey; Stein, Dan J.; Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale; Sunguya, Bruno F.; Sykes, Bryan L.; Tadesse, Birkneh Tilahun; Tadesse, Degena Bahrey; Tamirat, Koku Sisay; Taveira, Nuno; Tekelemedhin, Shishay Wahdey; Temesgen, Habtamu Denekew; Tesfay, Fisaha Haile; Teshale, Manaye Yihune; Thapa, Subash; Tlaye, Kenean Getaneh; Topp, Stephanie M.; Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Ullah, Irfan; Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran; Uthman, Olalekan A.; Veisani, Yousef; Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch; Wada, Fiseha Wadilo; Waheed, Yasir; Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey; Weldesamuel, Girmay Teklay T.; Westerman, Ronny; Wijeratne, Tissa; Wolde, Haileab Fekadu; Wondafrash, Dawit Zewdu; Wonde, Tewodros Eshete; Wondmagegn, Berhanu Yazew; Yeshanew, Addisu Gize; Yilma, Mekdes Tigistu; Yimer, Ebrahim M.; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yotebieng, Marcel; Youm, Yoosik; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zarghi, Afshin; Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew; Zewale, Taye Abuhay; Ziapour, Arash; Zodpey, Sanjay; Naghavi, Mohsen; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wang, Haidong; Lim, Stephen S.; Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; L Murray, Christopher J. |
| Contributors: |
GBD 2017 HIV Collaborators |
| Source: |
2405-4704 ; The Lancet HIV |
| Publication Year: |
2019 |
| Collection: |
IRUA - Institutional Repository van de Universiteit Antwerpen |
| Subject Terms: |
Human medicine |
| Description: |
Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1.95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1.87-2.04) and has since decreased to 0.95 million deaths (0.91-1.01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3.16 million, 2.79-3.67) and since ... |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
pdf |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isi/000500912300019 |
| Availability: |
https://hdl.handle.net/10067/1651020151162165141; https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/12833e/165102.pdf |
| Rights: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.C4213C34 |
| Database: |
BASE |