Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence
| Title: | Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Emma L Davis; Tim CD Lucas; Anna Borlase; Timothy M Pollington; Sam Abbott; Diepreye Ayabina; Thomas Crellen; Joel Hellewell; Li Pi; Rachel Lowe; Akira Endo; Nicholas Davies; Georgia R Gore-Langton; Timothy W Russell; Nikos I Bosse; Matthew Quaife; Adam J Kucharski; Emily S Nightingale; Carl AB Pearson; Hamish Gibbs; Kathleen O’Reilly; Thibaut Jombart; Eleanor M Rees; Arminder K Deol; Stéphane Hué; Megan Auzenbergs; Rein MGJ Houben; Sebastian Funk; Yang Li; Fiona Sun; Kiesha Prem; Billy J Quilty; Julian Villabona-Arenas; Rosanna C Barnard; David Hodgson; Anna Foss; Christopher I Jarvis; Sophie R Meakin; Rosalind M Eggo; Kaja Abbas; Kevin van Zandvoort; Jon C Emery; Damien C Tully; Frank G Sandmann; W John Edmunds; Amy Gimma; Gwen Knight; James D Munday; Charlie Diamond; Mark Jit; Quentin Leclerc; Alicia Rosello; Yung-Wai Desmond Chan; David Simons; Sam Clifford; Stefan Flasche; Simon R Procter; Katherine E Atkins; Graham F Medley; T Déirdre Hollingsworth; Petra Klepac |
| Publication Year: | 2021 |
| Collection: | University of Leicester: Figshare |
| Subject Terms: | CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Humans; Contact Tracing; Sensitivity and Specificity; Disease Outbreaks; Quarantine; Pandemics; United Kingdom; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19 Testing |
| Description: | Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure. |
| Document Type: | article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: | unknown |
| Relation: | 2381/26369944.v1 |
| Availability: | https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Contact_tracing_is_an_imperfect_tool_for_controlling_COVID-19_transmission_and_relies_on_population_adherence/26369944 |
| Rights: | CC BY 4.0 |
| Accession Number: | edsbas.C931845F |
| Database: | BASE |