| Title: |
Annual prediction of shoreline erosion and subsequent recovery |
| Authors: |
Davidson, MA; Turner, IL; Splinter, KD; Harley, MD |
| Source: |
urn:ISSN:0378-3839 ; urn:ISSN:1872-7379 ; Coastal Engineering, 130, 14-25 |
| Publisher Information: |
Elsevier |
| Publication Year: |
2017 |
| Collection: |
UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks |
| Subject Terms: |
37 Earth Sciences; 4015 Maritime Engineering; 40 Engineering; 13 Climate Action; anzsrc-for: 37 Earth Sciences; anzsrc-for: 4015 Maritime Engineering; anzsrc-for: 40 Engineering; anzsrc-for: 0403 Geology; anzsrc-for: 0405 Oceanography; anzsrc-for: 0905 Civil Engineering; anzsrc-for: 3705 Geology; anzsrc-for: 4005 Civil engineering |
| Description: |
Prediction of the potential impact of an extreme storm-sequence on coastal resilience and the subsequent rate of post-storm recovery is a fundamental goal for coastal scientists, engineers and managers alike. This paper presents a methodology for forecasting shoreline change over annual time-scales, including the prediction of the potential impact of storm sequences and the subsequent post-storm recovery. The methodology utilises an archive of measured or modelled wave data to produce multiple (≈10 3 ) synthetic hydrodynamic forcing time-series to drive an equilibrium shoreline model in a Monte Carlo simulation. A Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) analysis is conducted on the resulting shoreline predictions in order to extrapolate the magnitude of shoreline displacements for predefined return periods. Three shoreline displacement bands are defined in a ‘traffic light’ system, to aid the interpretation of results; a green (normal) band characterising shoreline displacements expected within the typical decade, an amber (high) band defining events with return periods outside the decadal recurrence threshold but within return periods |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: |
unknown |
| Relation: |
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP150101339; https://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_47327; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.09.008 |
| DOI: |
10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.09.008 |
| Availability: |
https://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/unsworks_47327; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.09.008 |
| Rights: |
metadata only access ; http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb ; CC-BY-NC-ND ; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.CBB81D |
| Database: |
BASE |