| Title: |
A unified framework for trend uncertainty assessment in climate data records: demonstration on global mean sea level |
| Authors: |
Gobron, Kevin; Hohensinn, Roland; Loizeau, Xavier; Bulgin, Claire E.; Merchant, Christopher J.; Woolliams, Emma R.; Cox, Maurice G.; Dorigo, Wouter; Howard, Thomas; Langsdale, Mary; Povey, Adam C.; Ablain, Michaël; Bogusz, Janusz; Gruber, Alexander; Klos, Anna; Mittaz, Jonathan |
| Publisher Information: |
Springer |
| Publication Year: |
2026 |
| Collection: |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
| Description: |
Trends of essential climate variables are often estimated from climate data records to quantify changes in the Earth system. An understanding of the uncertainty in a trend is essential for accurately determining the significance of a trend and attributing its causes. Despite this importance, trend-uncertainty estimates rarely account for all known sources of uncertainty. Common approaches neglect measurement-system instability or neglect the impact of natural variability on trend uncertainty. Such neglect can result in over-confidence in trend estimates. This study addresses trend-uncertainty assessment, particularly the need to account for the combined effects of measurement instability and natural variability on the trend uncertainty. The study presents a novel, unified framework for trend estimation that combines available measurement uncertainty information with empirical modelling of natural climate variability to achieve a more accurate uncertainty estimate. The framework is demonstrated for a time series of global mean sea level observations, obtaining more realistic trend-uncertainty values. The framework is applicable to most other climate data records. Adopting this approach will enhance confidence in climate change analysis through more accurate trend-uncertainty assessment in climate studies. |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
text |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
1573-0956 |
| Relation: |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/127602/9/s10712-025-09922-7.pdf; https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/127602/1/review_issi_trend_ecv.pdf; Gobron, K., Hohensinn, R., Loizeau, X., Bulgin, C. E. orcid:0000-0003-4368-7386 , Merchant, C. J. orcid:0000-0003-4687-9850 , Woolliams, E. R., Cox, M. G., Dorigo, W., Howard, T., Langsdale, M., Povey, A. C., Ablain, M., Bogusz, J., Gruber, A., Klos, A. and Mittaz, J. (2026) A unified framework for trend uncertainty assessment in climate data records: demonstration on global mean sea level. Surveys in Geophysics. ISSN 1573-0956 doi:10.1007/s10712-025-09922-7 |
| Availability: |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/127602/; https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/127602/1/review_issi_trend_ecv.pdf |
| Rights: |
cc_by_nc_nd_4 |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.D25FD509 |
| Database: |
BASE |